Our side
MoneylinePSU to win
ours 20%
Projected score
28–21
PSU – MD
2026-11-28 · kickoff TBD
SECU Stadium · College Park, MD
B1G game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Penn State lead
44–3–1
· 48 meetings since 1917
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge Penn State Nittany Lions
85 ranks
Penn State Nittany Lions #35 rush offense
Maryland Terrapins #120 run defense
Pass game
even
39 ranks apart
Penn State Nittany Lions #96 pass offense
Maryland Terrapins #57 pass defense
Run game
edge Penn State Nittany Lions
127 ranks
Maryland Terrapins #242 rush offense
Penn State Nittany Lions #115 run defense
Pass game
edge Penn State Nittany Lions
67 ranks
Maryland Terrapins #117 pass offense
Penn State Nittany Lions #50 pass defense
Penn State Nittany Lions
Run-heavy · 59% run
Ball-control
Maryland Terrapins
Pass-heavy · 38% run
Ball-control
Terry Smith · 4-3
Mike Locksley · 36-44 · defense-minded
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Penn State Nittany Lions
TE
Benjamin Brahmer
6 rec · 87 yds · 3 TD
#4 TE
LB
Tony Rojas
14 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL
#48 LB
WR
Koby Howard
9 rec · 229 yds · 1 TD
#71 WR
QB
Rocco Becht
539 pass yds · 7 TD · 0 INT
#30 QB
Maryland Terrapins
WR
Na'eem Abdul-Rahim Gladding
14 rec · 187 yds · 2 TD
#57 WR
DL
Sidney Stewart
6 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.5 TFL
#147 DL
WR
Chris Durr Jr.
16 rec · 147 yds · 1 TD
#93 WR
DL
Derrick LeBlanc
4 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 2.5 TFL
#202 DL
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Penn State offense vs Maryland defense+4.0 pts
Maryland offense vs Penn State defense-11.4 pts
Altitude · context only322 m lower than the visitor's home elevation
An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have
played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.