← Matchups

Penn State

B1G · 2-0 · power +28.5 · #9
Our numberPSU -6.4 no book has priced this game

Maryland

B1G · 2-0 · power +13.1 · #64
Our side
MoneylinePSU to win ours 20%
Projected score 28–21 PSU – MD
2026-11-28 · kickoff TBD SECU Stadium · College Park, MD B1G game Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series Penn State lead 44–3–1 · 48 meetings since 1917
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge Penn State Nittany Lions 85 ranks
Penn State Nittany Lions #35 rush offense Maryland Terrapins #120 run defense
Pass game even 39 ranks apart
Penn State Nittany Lions #96 pass offense Maryland Terrapins #57 pass defense
Run game edge Penn State Nittany Lions 127 ranks
Maryland Terrapins #242 rush offense Penn State Nittany Lions #115 run defense
Pass game edge Penn State Nittany Lions 67 ranks
Maryland Terrapins #117 pass offense Penn State Nittany Lions #50 pass defense
Penn State Nittany Lions Run-heavy · 59% run Ball-control Maryland Terrapins Pass-heavy · 38% run Ball-control
Terry Smith · 4-3 Mike Locksley · 36-44 · defense-minded

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Penn State Nittany Lions
TE Benjamin Brahmer 6 rec · 87 yds · 3 TD #4 TE
LB Tony Rojas 14 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL #48 LB
WR Koby Howard 9 rec · 229 yds · 1 TD #71 WR
QB Rocco Becht 539 pass yds · 7 TD · 0 INT #30 QB
Maryland Terrapins
WR Na'eem Abdul-Rahim Gladding 14 rec · 187 yds · 2 TD #57 WR
DL Sidney Stewart 6 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.5 TFL #147 DL
WR Chris Durr Jr. 16 rec · 147 yds · 1 TD #93 WR
DL Derrick LeBlanc 4 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 2.5 TFL #202 DL

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Penn State Nittany LionsB1G +28.5 +10.4 +18.1 #9
Maryland TerrapinsB1G +13.1 +6.7 +6.3 #64

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Penn State offense vs Maryland defense+4.0 pts
Maryland offense vs Penn State defense-11.4 pts
Altitude · context only322 m lower than the visitor's home elevation

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.