Our side
MoneylineND to win
ours 5%
Projected score
39–13
ND – NAVY
2026-10-31 · 12:00 PM
Gillette Stadium · Foxborough, MA · neutral
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Notre Dame lead
84–13–1
· 98 meetings since 1927
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge Notre Dame Fighting Irish
139 ranks
Notre Dame Fighting Irish #1 rush offense
Navy Midshipmen #140 run defense
Pass game
edge Notre Dame Fighting Irish
217 ranks
Notre Dame Fighting Irish #10 pass offense
Navy Midshipmen #227 pass defense
Run game
even
40 ranks apart
Navy Midshipmen #14 rush offense
Notre Dame Fighting Irish #54 run defense
Pass game
even
29 ranks apart
Navy Midshipmen #35 pass offense
Notre Dame Fighting Irish #6 pass defense
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Balanced · 58% run
Ball-control
Navy Midshipmen
Run-heavy · 80% run
Ball-control
Dual-threat QB · 104 rush ypg
Marcus Freeman · 43-12
Brian Newberry · 26-12 · offense-minded
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
QB
CJ Carr
492 pass yds · 6 TD · 0 INT
#6 QB
K
Spencer Porath
3 FG · 12 XP · 21 pts
#11 K
RB
Nolan James Jr.
48 rush yds · 2 TD · 5 rec
#47 RB
WR
Jordan Faison
8 rec · 135 yds · 2 TD
#79 WR
Navy Midshipmen
DL
Aiden Lyczek
8 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 3.0 TFL
#97 DL
LB
MarcAnthony Parker
18 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL
#61 LB
DL
Griffen Willis
6 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.5 TFL
#203 DL
TE
Jordan Collins
2 rec · 68 yds · 1 TD
#64 TE
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Notre Dame offense vs Navy defense+17.9 pts
Navy offense vs Notre Dame defense-8.6 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 769 mi
Rest · context onlyAway team on 7 more days rest
An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have
played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.