BallKnowMe college football, by the numbers

← Matchups

Wyoming

MWC · 1-1 (0-1 MWC) · power -3.7 · #225
Our numberCSU -12.7 no book has priced this game

Colorado State

MWC · 2-0 (1-0 MWC) · power +7.2 · #101
Final WYO 13 · CSU 35 ML L Spread L Total L our logged sides, graded on the record
Our side
MoneylineWYO to win logged live now: CSU to win — the pick stands, the number moved · ours 76%

Our number: WYO by 1.7 — WYO to win.

WYO team totalWYO over 21.5 logged ours 19.0

Our number: WYO 23.9, from our margin and total split into two scores.

CSU team totalCSU under 24.5 logged ours 31.7

Our number: CSU 22.2, from our margin and total split into two scores.

Projected score 19–32 WYO – CSU
2026-09-05 · 6:00 PM Canvas Stadium · Fort Collins, CO MWC game Early season

The books 5 account books · tap any price — the ticket builds at that book

Book WYO spreadCSU spread OverUnder WYO winCSU win WYO TT overWYO TT under CSU TT overCSU TT under
DraftKings — — — —
FanDuel
BetMGM
ESPN Bet
Caesars

The gold price is the best available on that side; a gold ★ marks the side our number implies — a read, not a pick. TT is a team total — that team’s own points, not the game’s; columns are empty where no book hangs one. Send to book opens whichever book you tapped, not the one we would have picked. Prices are the books’ own.

Public vs booksbets vs money · Action Network captured in-game spread CSU 56% bets · 28% money · money WYO total Under 74% bets · 77% money ML CSU 91% bets · 73% money
Series Colorado State lead 57–52–5 · 114 meetings since 1903
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game even 36 ranks apart
Wyoming Cowboys #222 rush offense Colorado State Rams #186 run defense
Pass game even 43 ranks apart
Wyoming Cowboys #222 pass offense Colorado State Rams #265 pass defense
Run game even 36 ranks apart
Colorado State Rams #132 rush offense Wyoming Cowboys #96 run defense
Pass game edge Wyoming Cowboys 157 ranks
Colorado State Rams #183 pass offense Wyoming Cowboys #26 pass defense
Wyoming Cowboys Balanced · 52% run Avg pace Colorado State Rams Balanced · 48% run Ball-control
Jay Sawvel · 7-17 · defense-minded Tyson Summers · 5-18

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Wyoming Cowboys
DL Esaia Bogar 12 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.5 TFL #25 DL
LB Ethan Stuhlsatz 26 tkl · 0.5 sacks · 1.0 TFL #18 LB
DB Jones Thomas 13 tkl · 1 PD · 2 INT #94 DB
DL Jack Dunkley 7 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.5 TFL #328 DL
Colorado State Rams
QB Hauss Hejny 539 pass yds · 9 TD · 1 INT #11 QB
WR RJ Vick 9 rec · 108 yds · 3 TD #65 WR
DB Tre'Shawn Moore 16 tkl · 1 PD #115 DB
RB Mel Brown 228 rush yds · 2 TD · 3 rec #58 RB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Wyoming CowboysMWC -3.7 -9.4 +5.7 #225
Colorado State RamsMWC +7.2 +6.0 +1.2 #101

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Wyoming offense vs Colorado State defense-10.6 pts
Colorado State offense vs Wyoming defense+0.3 pts
Altitude · context only672 m lower than the visitor's home elevation

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.