← Matchups

Idaho State

· 3-0 · power +6.8 · #105
Our numberUSU -14.6 no book has priced this game

Utah State

MWC · 0-2 · power +8.0 · #93
Final IDST 29 · USU 17 ML L Spread L Total W our logged sides, graded on the record
Our side
MoneylineUSU to win logged ours 79%

Our number: USU by 19.6 — USU to win.

Projected score 21–36 IDST – USU
2026-09-05 · 7:00 PM Maverik Stadium · Logan, UT Early season

The books 5 account books · tap any price — the ticket builds at that book

Book IDST spreadUSU spread OverUnder IDST winUSU win IDST TT overIDST TT under USU TT overUSU TT under
DraftKings
FanDuel
BetMGM
ESPN Bet
Caesars

The gold price is the best available on that side; a gold marks the side our number implies — a read, not a pick. TT is a team total — that team’s own points, not the game’s; columns are empty where no book hangs one. Send to book opens whichever book you tapped, not the one we would have picked. Prices are the books’ own.

Public vs booksbets vs money · Action Network captured in-game spread USU 82% bets · 73% money total Under 98% bets · 97% money ML USU 98% bets · 96% money
Series Utah State lead 15–2 · 17 meetings since 1919
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge Idaho State Bengals 115 ranks
Idaho State Bengals #108 rush offense Utah State Aggies #223 run defense
Pass game even 11 ranks apart
Idaho State Bengals #72 pass offense Utah State Aggies #61 pass defense
Run game even 3 ranks apart
Utah State Aggies #63 rush offense Idaho State Bengals #66 run defense
Pass game edge Utah State Aggies 84 ranks
Utah State Aggies #126 pass offense Idaho State Bengals #210 pass defense
Idaho State Bengals Balanced · 43% run Avg pace Utah State Aggies Balanced · 51% run Ball-control Dual-threat QB · 61 rush ypg
Bronco Mendenhall · 56-56 · offense-minded

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Idaho State Bengals
K Mason Lindberg 7 FG · 15 XP · 36 pts #1 K
DL Trehsyn Fesili 20 tkl · 3.0 sacks · 4.0 TFL #14 DL
DL Collin Lewis 10 tkl · 0.5 TFL #44 DL
LB Nathan Reynolds 33 tkl · 3.0 TFL #32 LB
Utah State Aggies
DL Carson Tujague 9 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.0 TFL #62 DL
WR Eli Wood 12 rec · 143 yds · 2 TD #55 WR
WR Javon Robinson 6 rec · 131 yds · 1 TD #163 WR
DB Brevin Hamblin 10 tkl · 1 PD #366 DB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Idaho State Bengals +6.8 +5.5 +1.2 #105
Utah State AggiesMWC +8.0 +2.3 +5.7 #93

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Idaho State offense vs Utah State defense-0.2 pts
Utah State offense vs Idaho State defense+1.1 pts

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.