Sacramento State
Fresno State
The line has not moved a point since it opened (FRES -18.5 → -18.5), so our number decides: FRES by 21.3 against FRES -18.5 means FRES covers.
The market's move decides. The total opened 48.25 and is now 45.5, toward the under; that side has covered 55.1% at the opener since 2021. Ours at the pick: 50.5 — the other side, overruled.
Our number: FRES by 21.3 — FRES to win.
The books 5 account books · tap any price — the ticket builds at that book
| Book | SAC spread | FRES spread | Over | Under | SAC win | FRES win | SAC TT over | SAC TT under | FRES TT over | FRES TT under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | — | — | — | — | ||||||
| FanDuel | — | — | — | — | ||||||
| BetMGM | — | — | — | — | ||||||
| ESPN Bet | — | — | — | — | ||||||
| Caesars | — | — | — | — |
The gold price is the best available on that side; a gold ★ marks the side our number implies — a read, not a pick. TT is a team total — that team’s own points, not the game’s; columns are empty where no book hangs one. Send to book opens whichever book you tapped, not the one we would have picked. Prices are the books’ own.
Ours vs the market
Both percentages are Fresno State’s chance to win — ours, then the book’s with the vig removed, medianed across the books we track.
What the gap has been worth 10,740 games · 2016–2025
How often the side we favoured covered, by how far our number sat from the market’s. Break-even at −110 is 52.4% — no bucket reaches it, and the rate falls as we disagree more. The further we sit from the market, the worse we have done.
Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
| Team | Power | Off | Def | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sacramento State Hornets |
-4.1 | -0.7 | -3.4 | #233 |
| Fresno State Bulldogs |
+10.1 | -0.4 | +10.5 | #83 |
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.