Our side
MoneylineTXST to win
ours 89%
Projected score
21–44
UIW – TXST
2026-09-26 · 6:00 PM
UFCU Stadium · San Marcos, TX
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Texas State and Incarnate Word split 2 (1–1)
· 2 meetings since 2016
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
even
6 ranks apart
Incarnate Word Cardinals #160 rush offense
Texas State Bobcats #154 run defense
Pass game
even
23 ranks apart
Incarnate Word Cardinals #172 pass offense
Texas State Bobcats #149 pass defense
Run game
even
42 ranks apart
Texas State Bobcats #9 rush offense
Incarnate Word Cardinals #51 run defense
Pass game
edge Texas State Bobcats
125 ranks
Texas State Bobcats #44 pass offense
Incarnate Word Cardinals #169 pass defense
Incarnate Word Cardinals
Balanced · 52% run
Avg pace
Texas State Bobcats
Run-heavy · 58% run
Avg pace
Dual-threat QB · 58 rush ypg
G.J. Kinne · 23-16 · offense-minded
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Incarnate Word Cardinals
DL
Jeremiah Young
7 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 3.0 TFL
#28 DL
RB
Lontrell Turner
153 rush yds · 3 TD · 1 rec
#60 RB
LB
Christian Barney
18 tkl · 1.0 TFL
#103 LB
WR
Isaiah Champagne
12 rec · 141 yds · 1 TD
#159 WR
Texas State Bobcats
DB
Ryan Nolan
17 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
#26 DB
DB
Jayden Bradley
18 tkl
#126 DB
RB
Davian Jackson
128 rush yds · 2 TD · 1 rec
#80 RB
DL
Tymere Jackson
8 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.5 TFL
#201 DL
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Incarnate Word offense vs Texas State defense+3.0 pts
Texas State offense vs Incarnate Word defense+13.7 pts
An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have
played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.