Our side
MoneylineUSU to win
ours 66%
Projected score
22–30
TROY – USU
2026-09-26 · 7:30 PM
Maverik Stadium · Logan, UT
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Troy lead
2–1
· 3 meetings since 2002
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
even
3 ranks apart
Troy Trojans #226 rush offense
Utah State Aggies #223 run defense
Pass game
edge Utah State Aggies
126 ranks
Troy Trojans #187 pass offense
Utah State Aggies #61 pass defense
Run game
edge Utah State Aggies
46 ranks
Utah State Aggies #63 rush offense
Troy Trojans #109 run defense
Pass game
edge Troy Trojans
62 ranks
Utah State Aggies #126 pass offense
Troy Trojans #64 pass defense
Troy Trojans
Balanced · 54% run
Avg pace
Utah State Aggies
Balanced · 51% run
Ball-control
Dual-threat QB · 61 rush ypg
Gerad Parker · 12-20 · defense-minded
Bronco Mendenhall · 56-56 · offense-minded
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Troy Trojans
DL
Keno Jones
13 tkl · 1.5 sacks · 4.5 TFL
#22 DL
DB
Donnie Smith
9 tkl · 1 PD
#63 DB
WR
TK Keyes
7 rec · 167 yds · 2 TD
#109 WR
RB
Jaheim Merriweather
149 rush yds · 3 TD · 1 rec
#79 RB
Utah State Aggies
DL
Carson Tujague
9 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.0 TFL
#62 DL
WR
Eli Wood
12 rec · 143 yds · 2 TD
#55 WR
WR
Javon Robinson
6 rec · 131 yds · 1 TD
#163 WR
DB
Brevin Hamblin
10 tkl · 1 PD
#366 DB
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Troy offense vs Utah State defense-7.0 pts
Utah State offense vs Troy defense-1.5 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 1,579 mi
Altitude · context only1,274 m higher than the visitor's home elevation
An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have
played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.