Our side
MoneylineBOIS to win
ours 27%
Projected score
31–20
BOIS – FRES
2026-10-10 · 10:30 PM
Valley Children's Stadium · Fresno, CA
MWC game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Boise State lead
17–10
· 27 meetings since 1977
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
even
42 ranks apart
Boise State Broncos #61 rush offense
Fresno State Bulldogs #103 run defense
Pass game
even
26 ranks apart
Boise State Broncos #105 pass offense
Fresno State Bulldogs #79 pass defense
Run game
even
30 ranks apart
Fresno State Bulldogs #234 rush offense
Boise State Broncos #204 run defense
Pass game
edge Boise State Broncos
101 ranks
Fresno State Bulldogs #119 pass offense
Boise State Broncos #18 pass defense
Boise State Broncos
Balanced · 58% run
Avg pace
Fresno State Bulldogs
Run-heavy · 60% run
Ball-control
Spencer Danielson · 24-8
Matt Entz · 9-4 · defense-minded
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Boise State Broncos
LB
Boen Phelps
16 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.5 TFL
#34 LB
DB
Travis Anderson
16 tkl · 1 INT
#58 DB
RB
Sire Gaines
132 rush yds · 1 TD · 3 rec
#57 RB
RB
Dylan Riley
256 rush yds · 3 rec
#84 RB
Fresno State Bulldogs
DL
Jahzon Jacks
9 tkl · 2.0 TFL
#89 DL
DL
Martin Owusu
13 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.0 TFL
#118 DL
RB
Bryson Donelson
117 rush yds · 3 TD · 1 rec
#116 RB
LB
K'vion Thunderbird
13 tkl · 2.0 TFL
#222 LB
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Boise State offense vs Fresno State defense+0.3 pts
Fresno State offense vs Boise State defense-11.7 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 505 mi
Altitude · context only731 m lower than the visitor's home elevation
An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have
played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.