Our side
MoneylineSDSU to win
ours 59%
Projected score
24–22
FRES – SDSU
2026-10-17 · 10:30 PM
Snapdragon Stadium · San Diego, CA
MWC game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
San Diego State lead
19–13
· 32 meetings since 1969
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge San Diego State Aztecs
181 ranks
Fresno State Bulldogs #234 rush offense
San Diego State Aztecs #53 run defense
Pass game
edge San Diego State Aztecs
116 ranks
Fresno State Bulldogs #119 pass offense
San Diego State Aztecs #3 pass defense
Run game
even
29 ranks apart
San Diego State Aztecs #74 rush offense
Fresno State Bulldogs #103 run defense
Pass game
edge Fresno State Bulldogs
132 ranks
San Diego State Aztecs #211 pass offense
Fresno State Bulldogs #79 pass defense
Fresno State Bulldogs
Run-heavy · 60% run
Ball-control
San Diego State Aztecs
Run-heavy · 66% run
Ball-control
Matt Entz · 9-4 · defense-minded
Sean Lewis · 36-44 · defense-minded
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Fresno State Bulldogs
DL
Jahzon Jacks
9 tkl · 2.0 TFL
#89 DL
DL
Martin Owusu
13 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.0 TFL
#118 DL
RB
Bryson Donelson
117 rush yds · 3 TD · 1 rec
#116 RB
LB
K'vion Thunderbird
13 tkl · 2.0 TFL
#222 LB
San Diego State Aztecs
DB
Mike Lindsay
5 tkl · 1 PD · 2 INT
#155 DB
RB
Lucky Sutton
139 rush yds · 3 TD
#105 RB
DL
Gavriel Lightfoot
8 tkl · 1.0 TFL
#306 DL
DB
Jelani McLaughlin
13 tkl · 1 PD
#346 DB
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Fresno State offense vs San Diego State defense-9.5 pts
San Diego State offense vs Fresno State defense-7.8 pts
An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have
played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.