← Matchups

Washington State

PAC · 0-2 · power +12.9 · #68
Our numberWSU -1.3 no book has priced this game

San Diego State

MWC · 1-1 · power +11.8 · #76
Our side
MoneylineSDSU to win ours 52%
Projected score 23–22 WSU – SDSU
2026-10-31 · 7:00 PM Snapdragon Stadium · San Diego, CA Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series Washington State lead 3–1 · 4 meetings since 2007
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge San Diego State Aztecs 102 ranks
Washington State Cougars #155 rush offense San Diego State Aztecs #53 run defense
Pass game edge San Diego State Aztecs 183 ranks
Washington State Cougars #186 pass offense San Diego State Aztecs #3 pass defense
Run game edge San Diego State Aztecs 59 ranks
San Diego State Aztecs #74 rush offense Washington State Cougars #133 run defense
Pass game edge Washington State Cougars 173 ranks
San Diego State Aztecs #211 pass offense Washington State Cougars #38 pass defense
Washington State Cougars Balanced · 53% run Avg pace Dual-threat QB · 34 rush ypg San Diego State Aztecs Run-heavy · 66% run Ball-control
Jimmy Rogers · 6-6 · defense-minded Sean Lewis · 36-44 · defense-minded

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Washington State Cougars
DB Jaylen Thomas 7 tkl · 2 INT #8 DB
DB Jamarey Smith 8 tkl · 1 PD #609 DB
DL Malachi Wrice 4 tkl · 2.0 TFL #704 DL
QB Caden Pinnick 207 pass yds · 2 INT · 90 rush yds #148 QB
San Diego State Aztecs
DB Mike Lindsay 5 tkl · 1 PD · 2 INT #155 DB
RB Lucky Sutton 139 rush yds · 3 TD #105 RB
DL Gavriel Lightfoot 8 tkl · 1.0 TFL #306 DL
DB Jelani McLaughlin 13 tkl · 1 PD #346 DB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Washington State CougarsPAC +12.9 -0.0 +13.0 #68
San Diego State AztecsMWC +11.8 +2.7 +9.1 #76

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Washington State offense vs San Diego State defense-9.1 pts
San Diego State offense vs Washington State defense-10.3 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 964 mi
Altitude · context only751 m lower than the visitor's home elevation

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.