Our side
MoneylineFRES to win
ours 61%
Projected score
23–25
CSU – FRES
2026-11-21 · 7:30 PM
Valley Children's Stadium · Fresno, CA
MWC game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Colorado State lead
11–7
· 18 meetings since 1992
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
even
29 ranks apart
Colorado State Rams #132 rush offense
Fresno State Bulldogs #103 run defense
Pass game
edge Fresno State Bulldogs
104 ranks
Colorado State Rams #183 pass offense
Fresno State Bulldogs #79 pass defense
Run game
edge Colorado State Rams
48 ranks
Fresno State Bulldogs #234 rush offense
Colorado State Rams #186 run defense
Pass game
edge Fresno State Bulldogs
146 ranks
Fresno State Bulldogs #119 pass offense
Colorado State Rams #265 pass defense
Colorado State Rams
Balanced · 48% run
Ball-control
Fresno State Bulldogs
Run-heavy · 60% run
Ball-control
Tyson Summers · 5-18
Matt Entz · 9-4 · defense-minded
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Colorado State Rams
QB
Hauss Hejny
539 pass yds · 9 TD · 1 INT
#11 QB
WR
RJ Vick
9 rec · 108 yds · 3 TD
#65 WR
DB
Tre'Shawn Moore
16 tkl · 1 PD
#115 DB
RB
Mel Brown
228 rush yds · 2 TD · 3 rec
#58 RB
Fresno State Bulldogs
DL
Jahzon Jacks
9 tkl · 2.0 TFL
#89 DL
DL
Martin Owusu
13 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.0 TFL
#118 DL
RB
Bryson Donelson
117 rush yds · 3 TD · 1 rec
#116 RB
LB
K'vion Thunderbird
13 tkl · 2.0 TFL
#222 LB
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Colorado State offense vs Fresno State defense-4.5 pts
Fresno State offense vs Colorado State defense-1.6 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 831 mi
Altitude · context only1,437 m lower than the visitor's home elevation
An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have
played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.