Our side
MoneylineWSU to win
ours 61%
Projected score
23–22
FRES – WSU
2026-10-03 · 9:30 PM
Martin Stadium · Pullman, WA
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Washington State lead
4–2
· 6 meetings since 1987
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge Washington State Cougars
101 ranks
Fresno State Bulldogs #234 rush offense
Washington State Cougars #133 run defense
Pass game
edge Washington State Cougars
81 ranks
Fresno State Bulldogs #119 pass offense
Washington State Cougars #38 pass defense
Run game
edge Fresno State Bulldogs
52 ranks
Washington State Cougars #155 rush offense
Fresno State Bulldogs #103 run defense
Pass game
edge Fresno State Bulldogs
107 ranks
Washington State Cougars #186 pass offense
Fresno State Bulldogs #79 pass defense
Fresno State Bulldogs
Run-heavy · 60% run
Ball-control
Washington State Cougars
Balanced · 53% run
Avg pace
Dual-threat QB · 34 rush ypg
Matt Entz · 9-4 · defense-minded
Jimmy Rogers · 6-6 · defense-minded
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Fresno State Bulldogs
DL
Jahzon Jacks
9 tkl · 2.0 TFL
#89 DL
DL
Martin Owusu
13 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.0 TFL
#118 DL
RB
Bryson Donelson
117 rush yds · 3 TD · 1 rec
#116 RB
LB
K'vion Thunderbird
13 tkl · 2.0 TFL
#222 LB
Washington State Cougars
DB
Jaylen Thomas
7 tkl · 2 INT
#8 DB
DB
Jamarey Smith
8 tkl · 1 PD
#609 DB
DL
Malachi Wrice
4 tkl · 2.0 TFL
#704 DL
QB
Caden Pinnick
207 pass yds · 2 INT · 90 rush yds
#148 QB
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Fresno State offense vs Washington State defense-13.4 pts
Washington State offense vs Fresno State defense-10.5 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 698 mi
Altitude · context only679 m higher than the visitor's home elevation
An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have
played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.