Our side
MoneylineTXST to win
ours 63%
Projected score
24–31
CSU – TXST
2026-10-15 · 8:00 PM
UFCU Stadium · San Marcos, TX
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
First recorded meeting between these programs
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
even
22 ranks apart
Colorado State Rams #132 rush offense
Texas State Bobcats #154 run defense
Pass game
even
34 ranks apart
Colorado State Rams #183 pass offense
Texas State Bobcats #149 pass defense
Run game
edge Texas State Bobcats
177 ranks
Texas State Bobcats #9 rush offense
Colorado State Rams #186 run defense
Pass game
edge Texas State Bobcats
221 ranks
Texas State Bobcats #44 pass offense
Colorado State Rams #265 pass defense
Colorado State Rams
Balanced · 48% run
Ball-control
Texas State Bobcats
Run-heavy · 58% run
Avg pace
Dual-threat QB · 58 rush ypg
Tyson Summers · 5-18
G.J. Kinne · 23-16 · offense-minded
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Colorado State Rams
QB
Hauss Hejny
539 pass yds · 9 TD · 1 INT
#11 QB
WR
RJ Vick
9 rec · 108 yds · 3 TD
#65 WR
DB
Tre'Shawn Moore
16 tkl · 1 PD
#115 DB
RB
Mel Brown
228 rush yds · 2 TD · 3 rec
#58 RB
Texas State Bobcats
DB
Ryan Nolan
17 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
#26 DB
DB
Jayden Bradley
18 tkl
#126 DB
RB
Davian Jackson
128 rush yds · 2 TD · 1 rec
#80 RB
DL
Tymere Jackson
8 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.5 TFL
#201 DL
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Colorado State offense vs Texas State defense+5.3 pts
Texas State offense vs Colorado State defense+8.8 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 841 mi
Altitude · context only1,350 m lower than the visitor's home elevation
An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have
played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.