← Matchups

Massachusetts

MAC · 2-0 · power -3.1 · #218
Our numberCONN -6.5 no book has priced this game

UConn

IND · 1-1 · power +2.4 · #147
Our side
MoneylineCONN to win ours 68%
Projected score 24–30 MASS – CONN
2026-10-23 · 7:00 PM Pratt & Whitney Stadium · East Hartford, CT Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series UConn lead 6–4 · 10 meetings since 1899
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game even 22 ranks apart
Massachusetts Minutemen #246 rush offense UConn Huskies #224 run defense
Pass game edge UConn Huskies 133 ranks
Massachusetts Minutemen #257 pass offense UConn Huskies #124 pass defense
Run game edge UConn Huskies 182 ranks
UConn Huskies #40 rush offense Massachusetts Minutemen #222 run defense
Pass game edge UConn Huskies 222 ranks
UConn Huskies #42 pass offense Massachusetts Minutemen #264 pass defense
Massachusetts Minutemen Balanced · 51% run Ball-control UConn Huskies Balanced · 49% run Ball-control
Joe Harasymiak · 0-12 Jim Mora · 44-42 · offense-minded

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Massachusetts Minutemen
DB Jahmad Harmon 3 tkl · 3 INT #42 DB
QB William Watson III 349 pass yds · 4 TD · 0 INT #19 QB
DB Zeraun Daniel 12 tkl · 1 PD #225 DB
RB Elijah Faulkner 134 rush yds · 2 rec #133 RB
UConn Huskies
DL Anas Luqman 5 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL #179 DL
DB Zion Paret 15 tkl · 1 PD #209 DB
LB K'Von Sherman 14 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 3.0 TFL #153 LB
DB Saxton Suchanic 4 tkl · 3 PD #287 DB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Massachusetts MinutemenMAC -3.1 -2.0 -1.1 #218
UConn HuskiesIND +2.4 +3.2 -0.8 #147

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Massachusetts offense vs UConn defense-1.2 pts
UConn offense vs Massachusetts defense+4.3 pts
Rest · context onlyHome team on 7 more days rest

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.