Our side
MoneylineAF to win
ours 65%
Projected score
21–32
CONN – AF
2026-10-31 · 3:00 PM
Falcon Stadium · USAF Academy, CO
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
UConn lead
1–0
· 1 meeting since 2025
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge UConn Huskies
219 ranks
UConn Huskies #40 rush offense
Air Force Falcons #259 run defense
Pass game
edge UConn Huskies
213 ranks
UConn Huskies #42 pass offense
Air Force Falcons #255 pass defense
Run game
edge Air Force Falcons
190 ranks
Air Force Falcons #34 rush offense
UConn Huskies #224 run defense
Pass game
edge Air Force Falcons
121 ranks
Air Force Falcons #3 pass offense
UConn Huskies #124 pass defense
UConn Huskies
Balanced · 49% run
Ball-control
Air Force Falcons
Run-heavy · 80% run
Avg pace
Dual-threat QB · 92 rush ypg
Jim Mora · 44-42 · offense-minded
Troy Calhoun · 80-53 · offense-minded
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
UConn Huskies
DL
Anas Luqman
5 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL
#179 DL
DB
Zion Paret
15 tkl · 1 PD
#209 DB
LB
K'Von Sherman
14 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 3.0 TFL
#153 LB
DB
Saxton Suchanic
4 tkl · 3 PD
#287 DB
Air Force Falcons
LB
Blake Fletcher
21 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.5 TFL
#1 LB
P
Will Duncan
5 punts · 56.0 yd avg
#18 P
LB
Dallas Daley
12 tkl · 1.0 TFL
#238 LB
DB
Korey Johnson
6 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
#501 DB
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
UConn offense vs Air Force defense+0.1 pts
Air Force offense vs UConn defense+4.5 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 1,697 mi
Altitude · context only2,011 m higher than the visitor's home elevation
An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have
played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.