← Matchups

UConn

IND · 1-1 · power +2.4 · #147
Our numberM-OH -8.4 no book has priced this game

Miami (OH)

MAC · 1-1 · power +4.3 · #128
Our side
MoneylineM-OH to win ours 58%
Projected score 22–31 CONN – M-OH
2026-09-26 · kickoff TBD Yager Stadium · Oxford, OH Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

First recorded meeting between these programs
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game even 34 ranks apart
UConn Huskies #40 rush offense Miami (OH) RedHawks #74 run defense
Pass game even 32 ranks apart
UConn Huskies #42 pass offense Miami (OH) RedHawks #74 pass defense
Run game edge Miami (OH) RedHawks 68 ranks
Miami (OH) RedHawks #156 rush offense UConn Huskies #224 run defense
Pass game even 36 ranks apart
Miami (OH) RedHawks #160 pass offense UConn Huskies #124 pass defense
UConn Huskies Balanced · 49% run Ball-control Miami (OH) RedHawks Balanced · 54% run Ball-control Dual-threat QB · 49 rush ypg
Jim Mora · 44-42 · offense-minded Chuck Martin · 70-64 · defense-minded

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
UConn Huskies
DL Anas Luqman 5 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL #179 DL
DB Zion Paret 15 tkl · 1 PD #209 DB
LB K'Von Sherman 14 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 3.0 TFL #153 LB
DB Saxton Suchanic 4 tkl · 3 PD #287 DB
Miami (OH) RedHawks
QB David McComb 474 pass yds · 4 TD · 0 INT #62 QB
WR Damarion Witten 3 rec · 100 yds · 2 TD #203 WR
TE Christian Ross 4 rec · 52 yds · 1 TD #81 TE
WR Lynel Billups-Williams 8 rec · 104 yds · 1 TD #266 WR

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
UConn HuskiesIND +2.4 +3.2 -0.8 #147
Miami (OH) RedHawksMAC +4.3 +3.3 +0.9 #128

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
UConn offense vs Miami (OH) defense+2.3 pts
Miami (OH) offense vs UConn defense+4.1 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 653 mi

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.