BallKnowMe college football, by the numbers

← Matchups

Memphis

AAC · 2-1 · power +15.2 · #55
Our numberMEM -3.3 no book has priced this game

UNLV

MWC · 1-2 (1-0 MWC) · power +10.0 · #85
Final MEM 27 · UNLV 21 ML L Total L our logged sides, graded on the record
Our side
MoneylineUNLV to win logged live now: MEM to win — the pick stands, the number moved · ours 43%

Our number: UNLV by 3.0 — UNLV to win.

MEM team totalMEM over 26.5 logged live now: MEM over 25.5 — the pick stands, the number moved · ours 28.7

Our number: MEM 28.2, from our margin and total split into two scores.

UNLV team totalUNLV over 30.5 logged ours 25.4

Our number: UNLV 31.1, from our margin and total split into two scores.

Projected score 29–25 MEM – UNLV
2026-08-29 · 10:00 PM Allegiant Stadium · Las Vegas, NV Early season

The books 5 account books · tap any price — the ticket builds at that book

Book MEM spreadUNLV spread OverUnder MEM winUNLV win MEM TT overMEM TT under UNLV TT overUNLV TT under
DraftKings — — — —
FanDuel
BetMGM
ESPN Bet
Caesars

The gold price is the best available on that side; a gold ★ marks the side our number implies — a read, not a pick. TT is a team total — that team’s own points, not the game’s; columns are empty where no book hangs one. Send to book opens whichever book you tapped, not the one we would have picked. Prices are the books’ own.

Public vs booksbets vs money · Action Network captured in-game spread MEM 53% bets · 53% money total Under 86% bets · 79% money ML UNLV 93% bets · 84% money
First recorded meeting between these programs
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge Memphis Tigers 218 ranks
Memphis Tigers #15 rush offense UNLV Rebels #233 run defense
Pass game even 14 ranks apart
Memphis Tigers #132 pass offense UNLV Rebels #146 pass defense
Run game edge UNLV Rebels 48 ranks
UNLV Rebels #20 rush offense Memphis Tigers #68 run defense
Pass game edge UNLV Rebels 180 ranks
UNLV Rebels #50 pass offense Memphis Tigers #230 pass defense
Memphis Tigers Balanced · 51% run Avg pace Dual-threat QB · 52 rush ypg UNLV Rebels Balanced · 52% run Avg pace Dual-threat QB · 48 rush ypg
Ryan Silverfield · 50-24 · offense-minded Dan Mullen · 67-34 · offense-minded

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Memphis Tigers
TE Hunter Tipton 14 rec · 291 yds · 2 TD #1 TE
DL Elijah Kinsler 18 tkl · 3.5 sacks · 4.5 TFL #8 DL
RB Jaylin Carter 375 rush yds · 6 TD · 2 rec #5 RB
LB Zach Ruffin 24 tkl · 1.5 TFL #12 LB
UNLV Rebels
DB Tre Fulton 21 tkl · 1 PD #28 DB
DB Jake Pope 23 tkl · 1 PD #62 DB
RB Jai'Den Thomas 224 rush yds · 1 TD · 7 rec #69 RB
DB Denver Harris 10 tkl · 2 PD #212 DB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Memphis TigersAAC +15.2 +8.8 +6.4 #55
UNLV RebelsMWC +10.0 +1.9 +8.1 #85

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Memphis offense vs UNLV defense+0.7 pts
UNLV offense vs Memphis defense-4.5 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 1,414 mi
Altitude · context only576 m higher than the visitor's home elevation

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.