BallKnowMe college football, by the numbers

← Matchups

The Citadel

· 1-2 (0-1) · power -14.5 · #340
Our numberCLT -17.1 no book has priced this game

Charlotte

AAC · 0-2 · power -10.3 · #299
Final CIT 43 · CLT 41 ML L Spread L Total W our logged sides, graded on the record
Our side
MoneylineCLT to win logged ours 83%

Our number: CLT by 13.6 — CLT to win.

Projected score 21–38 CIT – CLT
2026-09-05 · 3:30 PM Jerry Richardson Stadium · Charlotte, NC Early season

The books 5 account books · tap any price — the ticket builds at that book

Book CIT spreadCLT spread OverUnder CIT winCLT win CIT TT overCIT TT under CLT TT overCLT TT under
DraftKings — — — —
FanDuel — — — —
BetMGM — — — —
ESPN Bet — — — —
Caesars — — — —

The gold price is the best available on that side; a gold ★ marks the side our number implies — a read, not a pick. TT is a team total — that team’s own points, not the game’s; columns are empty where no book hangs one. Send to book opens whichever book you tapped, not the one we would have picked. Prices are the books’ own.

Public vs booksbets vs money · Action Network captured in-game spread CIT 50% bets · 55% money total Over 61% bets · 86% money ML CLT 98% bets · 53% money
Series The Citadel lead 1–0 · 1 meeting since 2014
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge The Citadel Bulldogs 45 ranks
The Citadel Bulldogs #203 rush offense Charlotte 49ers #248 run defense
Pass game edge The Citadel Bulldogs 194 ranks
The Citadel Bulldogs #26 pass offense Charlotte 49ers #220 pass defense
Run game edge The Citadel Bulldogs 113 ranks
Charlotte 49ers #264 rush offense The Citadel Bulldogs #151 run defense
Pass game even 25 ranks apart
Charlotte 49ers #234 pass offense The Citadel Bulldogs #259 pass defense
The Citadel Bulldogs Run-heavy · 81% run Ball-control Dual-threat QB · 57 rush ypg Charlotte 49ers Balanced · 50% run Ball-control
Tim Albin · 35-30

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
The Citadel Bulldogs
LB Zyion Brown 28 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 3.5 TFL #19 LB
RB Gavin Garcia 289 rush yds · 4 TD · 2 rec #21 RB
DB J'hari Mosley 18 tkl · 1 INT #150 DB
RB Sebastien Boyle 94 rush yds · 3 TD · 4 rec #137 RB
Charlotte 49ers
DB Collin Gill 16 tkl #49 DB
WR Jaylen Hampton 11 rec · 142 yds · 2 TD #124 WR
LB Gavin Willis 14 tkl · 2.5 TFL #184 LB
DL Curtis Simpson 9 tkl · 1.0 TFL #417 DL

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
The Citadel Bulldogs -14.5 -4.0 -10.5 #340
Charlotte 49ersAAC -10.3 -4.9 -5.4 #299

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
The Citadel offense vs Charlotte defense+1.3 pts
Charlotte offense vs The Citadel defense+5.5 pts

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.