BallKnowMe college football, by the numbers

← Matchups

Florida International

CUSA · 1-1 · power +5.3 · #119
Our numberUSF -15.5 no book has priced this game

South Florida

AAC · 2-0 (1-0 AAC) · power +19.1 · #41
Final FIU 9 · USF 19 ML W Spread L Total W our logged sides, graded on the record
Our side
MoneylineUSF to win logged ours 81%

Our number: USF by 22.3 — USF to win.

USF team totalUSF over 34.5 logged live now: USF under 34.5 — the pick stands, the number moved · ours 34.2

Our number: USF 39.2, from our margin and total split into two scores.

Projected score 19–34 FIU – USF
2026-09-05 · 7:00 PM Raymond James Stadium · Tampa, FL Early season

The books 5 account books · tap any price — the ticket builds at that book

Book FIU spreadUSF spread OverUnder FIU winUSF win FIU TT overFIU TT under USF TT overUSF TT under
DraftKings — — — —
FanDuel
BetMGM
ESPN Bet
Caesars

The gold price is the best available on that side; a gold ★ marks the side our number implies — a read, not a pick. TT is a team total — that team’s own points, not the game’s; columns are empty where no book hangs one. Send to book opens whichever book you tapped, not the one we would have picked. Prices are the books’ own.

Public vs booksbets vs money · Action Network captured in-game spread USF 72% bets · 72% money total Under 71% bets · 70% money ML USF 98% bets · 93% money
Series South Florida lead 2–0 · 2 meetings since 2006
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge South Florida Bulls 45 ranks
Florida International Panthers #69 rush offense South Florida Bulls #24 run defense
Pass game edge South Florida Bulls 125 ranks
Florida International Panthers #162 pass offense South Florida Bulls #37 pass defense
Run game edge South Florida Bulls 83 ranks
South Florida Bulls #56 rush offense Florida International Panthers #139 run defense
Pass game edge South Florida Bulls 166 ranks
South Florida Bulls #5 pass offense Florida International Panthers #171 pass defense
Florida International Panthers Balanced · 56% run Ball-control South Florida Bulls Balanced · 55% run Ball-control Dual-threat QB · 84 rush ypg
Willie Simmons · 7-6 Kevin Patrick · 0-1

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Florida International Panthers
DL Elisha Baldridge 11 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 4.0 TFL #26 DL
WR Maguire Anderson 13 rec · 186 yds · 2 TD #34 WR
DL DeeJay Holmes Jr. 7 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 3.0 TFL #81 DL
WR Jojo Stone 9 rec · 141 yds · 1 TD #146 WR
South Florida Bulls
DL C.J. Hicks 9 tkl · 1.0 TFL #127 DL
DB Ayden Jackson 16 tkl · 1 PD #181 DB
QB Michael Van Buren Jr. 339 pass yds · 2 TD · 0 INT #54 QB
WR Bryson Rodgers 9 rec · 89 yds · 1 TD #208 WR

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Florida International PanthersCUSA +5.3 -0.2 +5.5 #119
South Florida BullsAAC +19.1 +9.4 +9.7 #41

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Florida International offense vs South Florida defense-9.9 pts
South Florida offense vs Florida International defense+3.9 pts

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.