← Matchups

UT Rio Grande Valley

· 1-2 (0-1) · power +3.0 · #138
Our numberUTSA -26.9 no book has priced this game

UTSA

AAC · 2-0 · power +19.0 · #42
Final UT R 16 · UTSA 45 ML W Spread L Total W our logged sides, graded on the record
Our side
MoneylineUTSA to win logged ours 93%

Our number: UTSA by 16.8 — UTSA to win.

Projected score 16–43 UT R – UTSA
2026-09-05 · 3:30 PM Alamodome · San Antonio, TX Early season

The books 5 account books · tap any price — the ticket builds at that book

Book UT R spreadUTSA spread OverUnder UT R winUTSA win UT R TT overUT R TT under UTSA TT overUTSA TT under
DraftKings
FanDuel
BetMGM
ESPN Bet
Caesars

The gold price is the best available on that side; a gold marks the side our number implies — a read, not a pick. TT is a team total — that team’s own points, not the game’s; columns are empty where no book hangs one. Send to book opens whichever book you tapped, not the one we would have picked. Prices are the books’ own.

Public vs booksbets vs money · Action Network captured 8 days ago spread UT R 96% bets · 82% money total Under 90% bets · 71% money ML UTSA 97% bets · 19% money · money UT R
First recorded meeting between these programs
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros 145 ranks
UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros #28 rush offense UTSA Roadrunners #173 run defense
Pass game edge UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros 187 ranks
UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros #22 pass offense UTSA Roadrunners #209 pass defense
Run game even 5 ranks apart
UTSA Roadrunners #51 rush offense UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros #56 run defense
Pass game edge UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros 71 ranks
UTSA Roadrunners #83 pass offense UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros #12 pass defense
UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros Balanced · 52% run Ball-control UTSA Roadrunners Balanced · 46% run Ball-control
Jeff Traylor · 53-26 · offense-minded

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros
WR Kyran Lee 18 rec · 301 yds · 2 TD #27 WR
DB Alijah Prosser 14 tkl · 5 PD #68 DB
LB Spencer Rich 27 tkl · 1.0 TFL #72 LB
K Brysen Gardner 6 FG · 9 XP · 27 pts #16 K
UTSA Roadrunners
LB Brandon Tucker 18 tkl · 0.5 TFL #78 LB
DB Ahamad Chapman 3 tkl · 1 INT #177 DB
WR Mekhi Anderson 12 rec · 125 yds · 1 TD #144 WR
WR AJ Wilson 11 rec · 125 yds · 1 TD #155 WR

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros +3.0 +2.4 +0.7 #138
UTSA RoadrunnersAAC +19.0 +11.8 +7.2 #42

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
UT Rio Grande Valley offense vs UTSA defense-4.8 pts
UTSA offense vs UT Rio Grande Valley defense+11.1 pts

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.