Our side · spreadSHSU +13.5loggedour number at the pick TLSA -7.0 · now TLSA -8.2 · 3.3 pts from the market now
Sam Houston
CUSA · 0-2 · power -5.4 · #248
FinalTLSA 23 · SHSU 17ML WSpread WTotal Lour logged sides, graded on the record
Our side
SpreadSHSU +13.5loggedlive now: SHSU +11.5 — the pick stands, the number moved · ours TLSA -8.2
The line has not moved a point since it opened (SHSU +14 → +13.5), so our number decides: TLSA by 7.0 against SHSU +13.5 means SHSU covers.
TotalOver 51.5loggedlive now: Under 51.5 — the pick stands, the number moved · ours 51.0
The total has not moved a point since it opened (51.5 → 51.5); ours 52.0 against 51.5 says over.
MoneylineTLSA to winloggedours 32% · book 20%
Our number: TLSA by 7.0 — TLSA to win.
Distance from the market3.3 pts / -0.5 totala caution, not a signal
Projected score30–21TLSA – SHSU
2026-09-12 · 7:00 PMElliott T. Bowers Stadium · Huntsville, TXEarly season
The books 5 account books · tap any price — the ticket builds at that book
Book
TLSA spread
SHSU spread
Over
Under
TLSA win
SHSU win
TLSA TT over
TLSA TT under
SHSU TT over
SHSU TT under
DraftKings
—
—
—
—
FanDuel
—
—
BetMGM
—
—
ESPN Bet
—
—
Caesars
—
—
The gold price is the best available on that side;
a gold ★ marks the side our number implies — a read, not a pick.
TT is a team total — that team’s own points, not the game’s;
columns are empty where no book hangs one.
Send to book opens whichever book you tapped, not the one we would have picked.
Prices are the books’ own.
Ours vs the market
SpreadTulsa -8.2
the marketSam Houston +11.5
Total51.0
the market51.5
Sam Houston win32%
vs 20%
Both percentages are Sam Houston’s chance to win — ours, then
the book’s with the vig removed, medianed across the books we track.
What the gap has been worth 10,740 games · 2016–2025
0–3 pts52.0%
3–750.2%
7–1449.3%
14+46.8%
How often the side we favoured covered, by how far our number sat from the
market’s. Break-even at −110 is 52.4% — no bucket reaches it, and
the rate falls as we disagree more. The further we sit from the market, the worse
we have done.
Public vs booksbets vs money · Action Networkcaptured in-gamespreadTLSA 68% bets · 66% moneytotalUnder 91% bets · 89% moneyMLTLSA 98% bets · 80% money
Series
Tulsa lead
1–0
· 1 meeting since 2009
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run gameedge Tulsa Golden Hurricane50 ranks
Tulsa Golden Hurricane #157 rush offenseSam Houston Bearkats #207 run defense
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Tulsa offense vs Sam Houston defense+0.2 pts
Sam Houston offense vs Tulsa defense-10.0 pts
An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have
played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.