BallKnowMe college football, by the numbers

← Matchups

East Carolina

AAC · 0-2 · power +10.4 · #79
Our side · spreadODU -2.5 our number ODU -6.5 · 4.0 pts from the market our number starts from the opening line and is corrected +5.8 for this matchup by our data on both teams

Old Dominion

SBC · 1-1 · power +9.3 · #90
Our side
SpreadODU -2.5 ours ODU -6.5
TotalOver 49.5 ours 54.6
MoneylineODU to win ours 52% · book 56%
Distance from the market 4.0 pts / +5.1 total a caution, not a signal
Projected score 24–30 ECU – ODU
2026-09-19 · 6:00 PM S.B. Ballard Stadium · Norfolk, VA Early season

The books 3 account books · tap any price — the ticket builds at that book

Book ECU spreadODU spread OverUnder ECU winODU win ECU TT overECU TT under ODU TT overODU TT under
DraftKings — — — —
FanDuel — — — —
BetMGM — — — —

The gold price is the best available on that side; a gold ★ marks the side our number implies — a read, not a pick. TT is a team total — that team’s own points, not the game’s; columns are empty where no book hangs one. Send to book opens whichever book you tapped, not the one we would have picked. Prices are the books’ own.

Ours vs the market

SpreadOld Dominion -6.5
the marketOld Dominion -2.5
Total54.6
the market49.5
Old Dominion win52% vs 56%

Both percentages are Old Dominion’s chance to win — ours, then the book’s with the vig removed, medianed across the books we track.

What the gap has been worth 10,740 games · 2016–2025

0–3 pts52.0%
3–750.2%
7–1449.3%
14+46.8%

How often the side we favoured covered, by how far our number sat from the market’s. Break-even at −110 is 52.4% — no bucket reaches it, and the rate falls as we disagree more. The further we sit from the market, the worse we have done.

Public vs booksbets vs money · Action Network captured 2 hr ago total Over 78% bets · 79% money
Series East Carolina lead 5–0 · 5 meetings since 2013
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge Old Dominion Monarchs 96 ranks
East Carolina Pirates #121 rush offense Old Dominion Monarchs #25 run defense
Pass game even 39 ranks apart
East Carolina Pirates #52 pass offense Old Dominion Monarchs #13 pass defense
Run game even 28 ranks apart
Old Dominion Monarchs #73 rush offense East Carolina Pirates #45 run defense
Pass game even 15 ranks apart
Old Dominion Monarchs #47 pass offense East Carolina Pirates #32 pass defense
East Carolina Pirates Balanced · 53% run Avg pace Old Dominion Monarchs Run-heavy · 61% run Ball-control Dual-threat QB · 84 rush ypg
Blake Harrell · 14-5 Ricky Rahne · 30-33

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
East Carolina Pirates
WR Jeremiah Melvin 11 rec · 154 yds · 1 TD #89 WR
DL Kendrick DuJour 6 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.5 TFL #255 DL
DL Torin Brazell 5 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.0 TFL #307 DL
LB Crews Law 12 tkl · 1.5 TFL #220 LB
Old Dominion Monarchs
DL Javen Gibson 7 tkl · 2.5 sacks · 4.0 TFL #66 DL
DB Lucas Struck 11 tkl · 3 PD #92 DB
LB Mario Thompson 19 tkl · 1.0 TFL #79 LB
QB Quinn Henicle 324 pass yds · 3 TD · 1 INT #46 QB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
East Carolina PiratesAAC +10.4 +3.9 +6.5 #79
Old Dominion MonarchsSBC +9.3 +1.2 +8.0 #90

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
East Carolina offense vs Old Dominion defense-4.2 pts
Old Dominion offense vs East Carolina defense-5.3 pts

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.