BallKnowMe college football, by the numbers

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Florida International

CUSA · 1-1 · power +5.3 · #119
Our side · spreadFIU +7 our number FIU -3.5 · 10.5 pts from the market our number starts from the opening line and is corrected -2.0 for this matchup by our data on both teams

Florida Atlantic

AAC · 1-1 (1-0 AAC) · power +1.9 · #153
Our side
SpreadFIU +7 ours FIU -3.5
TotalUnder 62.5 ours 57.8
MoneylineFIU to win ours 47% · book 70%
Distance from the market 10.5 pts / -4.7 total a caution, not a signal
Projected score 31–27 FIU – FAU
2026-09-19 · 6:00 PM Flagler Credit Union Stadium · Boca Raton, FL Early season

The books 3 account books · tap any price — the ticket builds at that book

Book FIU spreadFAU spread OverUnder FIU winFAU win FIU TT overFIU TT under FAU TT overFAU TT under
DraftKings — — — —
FanDuel — — — —
BetMGM — — — —

The gold price is the best available on that side; a gold ★ marks the side our number implies — a read, not a pick. TT is a team total — that team’s own points, not the game’s; columns are empty where no book hangs one. Send to book opens whichever book you tapped, not the one we would have picked. Prices are the books’ own.

Ours vs the market

SpreadFlorida International -3.5
the marketFlorida Atlantic -7.0
Total57.8
the market62.5
Florida Atlantic win47% vs 70%

Both percentages are Florida Atlantic’s chance to win — ours, then the book’s with the vig removed, medianed across the books we track.

What the gap has been worth 10,740 games · 2016–2025

0–3 pts52.0%
3–750.2%
7–1449.3%
14+46.8%

How often the side we favoured covered, by how far our number sat from the market’s. Break-even at −110 is 52.4% — no bucket reaches it, and the rate falls as we disagree more. The further we sit from the market, the worse we have done.

Public vs booksbets vs money · Action Network captured 7 hr ago total Over 58% bets · 59% money ML FAU 99% bets · 31% money · money FIU
Series Florida Atlantic lead 16–6 · 22 meetings since 2003
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge Florida International Panthers 176 ranks
Florida International Panthers #69 rush offense Florida Atlantic Owls #245 run defense
Pass game even 4 ranks apart
Florida International Panthers #162 pass offense Florida Atlantic Owls #158 pass defense
Run game edge Florida International Panthers 72 ranks
Florida Atlantic Owls #211 rush offense Florida International Panthers #139 run defense
Pass game edge Florida Atlantic Owls 79 ranks
Florida Atlantic Owls #92 pass offense Florida International Panthers #171 pass defense
Florida International Panthers Balanced · 56% run Ball-control Florida Atlantic Owls Pass-heavy · 37% run Ball-control
Willie Simmons · 7-6 Zach Kittley · 4-8 · offense-minded

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Florida International Panthers
DL Elisha Baldridge 11 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 4.0 TFL #26 DL
WR Maguire Anderson 13 rec · 186 yds · 2 TD #34 WR
DL DeeJay Holmes Jr. 7 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 3.0 TFL #81 DL
WR Jojo Stone 9 rec · 141 yds · 1 TD #146 WR
Florida Atlantic Owls
WR Easton Messer 15 rec · 252 yds · 2 TD #12 WR
WR Kelby Valsin 18 rec · 207 yds · 2 TD #15 WR
DB Jayden Sweeney 12 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT #95 DB
DB Josh Roberts 7 tkl #104 DB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Florida International PanthersCUSA +5.3 -0.2 +5.5 #119
Florida Atlantic OwlsAAC +1.9 +9.4 -7.5 #153

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Florida International offense vs Florida Atlantic defense+7.3 pts
Florida Atlantic offense vs Florida International defense+3.8 pts

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.