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Navy

AAC · 1-1 (0-1 AAC) · power +9.1 · #91
Our numberNAVY -9.6 no book has priced this game

UAB

AAC · 1-1 · power -1.0 · #189
Our side
MoneylineNAVY to win ours 33%
Projected score 32–22 NAVY – UAB
2026-09-25 · 7:00 PM Protective Stadium · Birmingham, AL AAC game Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series Navy lead 3–0 · 3 meetings since 2023
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge Navy Midshipmen 230 ranks
Navy Midshipmen #14 rush offense UAB Blazers #244 run defense
Pass game edge Navy Midshipmen 223 ranks
Navy Midshipmen #35 pass offense UAB Blazers #258 pass defense
Run game edge UAB Blazers 63 ranks
UAB Blazers #77 rush offense Navy Midshipmen #140 run defense
Pass game edge UAB Blazers 124 ranks
UAB Blazers #103 pass offense Navy Midshipmen #227 pass defense
Navy Midshipmen Run-heavy · 80% run Ball-control Dual-threat QB · 104 rush ypg UAB Blazers Balanced · 52% run Ball-control
Brian Newberry · 26-12 · offense-minded Trent Dilfer · 9-21 · offense-minded

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Navy Midshipmen
DL Aiden Lyczek 8 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 3.0 TFL #97 DL
LB MarcAnthony Parker 18 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL #61 LB
DL Griffen Willis 6 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.5 TFL #203 DL
TE Jordan Collins 2 rec · 68 yds · 1 TD #64 TE
UAB Blazers
K Jonah Delange 7 FG · 4 XP · 25 pts #6 K
LB Ike Esonwune 15 tkl #67 LB
LB Muaaz Byard 20 tkl · 1.5 TFL #126 LB
DB Jo'Tavion Pierce 11 tkl · 1 PD #244 DB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Navy MidshipmenAAC +9.1 +4.6 +4.5 #91
UAB BlazersAAC -1.0 +2.0 -3.0 #189

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Navy offense vs UAB defense+7.6 pts
UAB offense vs Navy defense-2.5 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 686 mi
Rest · context onlyAway team on 7 more days rest

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.