← Matchups

North Carolina Central

· 2-1 · power -11.9 · #318
Our numberECU -32.1 no book has priced this game

East Carolina

AAC · 0-2 · power +10.4 · #79
Our side
MoneylineECU to win ours 96%
Projected score 12–44 NCCU – ECU
2026-09-26 · 4:00 PM Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium · Greenville, NC Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series East Carolina lead 1–0 · 1 meeting since 2014
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge East Carolina Pirates 144 ranks
North Carolina Central Eagles #189 rush offense East Carolina Pirates #45 run defense
Pass game even 11 ranks apart
North Carolina Central Eagles #43 pass offense East Carolina Pirates #32 pass defense
Run game even 24 ranks apart
East Carolina Pirates #121 rush offense North Carolina Central Eagles #145 run defense
Pass game edge East Carolina Pirates 51 ranks
East Carolina Pirates #52 pass offense North Carolina Central Eagles #103 pass defense
North Carolina Central Eagles Balanced · 53% run Ball-control East Carolina Pirates Balanced · 53% run Avg pace
Blake Harrell · 14-5

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
North Carolina Central Eagles
DL Zarion Walters 17 tkl · 3.0 sacks · 6.0 TFL #12 DL
DB Joshua Truesdale 19 tkl · 2 PD · 2 INT #88 DB
RB Plez Lawrence 264 rush yds · 3 TD · 1 rec #92 RB
DB Jakarri Martin II 9 tkl · 3 PD · 1 INT #231 DB
East Carolina Pirates
WR Jeremiah Melvin 11 rec · 154 yds · 1 TD #89 WR
DL Kendrick DuJour 6 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.5 TFL #255 DL
DL Torin Brazell 5 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.0 TFL #307 DL
LB Crews Law 12 tkl · 1.5 TFL #220 LB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
North Carolina Central Eagles -11.9 -5.0 -6.9 #318
East Carolina PiratesAAC +10.4 +3.9 +6.5 #79

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
North Carolina Central offense vs East Carolina defense-11.5 pts
East Carolina offense vs North Carolina Central defense+10.8 pts

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.