← Matchups

North Texas

AAC · 1-1 · power +20.8 · #32
Our numberUNT -8.4 no book has priced this game

Tulsa

AAC · 2-0 · power +4.8 · #124
Our side
MoneylineUNT to win ours 19%
Projected score 33–24 UNT – TLSA
2026-10-01 · 9:00 PM H. A. Chapman Stadium · Tulsa, OK AAC game Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series Tulsa lead 17–9 · 26 meetings since 1957
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game even 37 ranks apart
North Texas Mean Green #11 rush offense Tulsa Golden Hurricane #48 run defense
Pass game edge North Texas Mean Green 115 ranks
North Texas Mean Green #16 pass offense Tulsa Golden Hurricane #131 pass defense
Run game even 18 ranks apart
Tulsa Golden Hurricane #157 rush offense North Texas Mean Green #175 run defense
Pass game edge North Texas Mean Green 109 ranks
Tulsa Golden Hurricane #192 pass offense North Texas Mean Green #83 pass defense
North Texas Mean Green Balanced · 50% run Avg pace Tulsa Golden Hurricane Balanced · 55% run Up-tempo
Eric Morris · 22-16 · offense-minded Tre Lamb · 4-8

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
North Texas Mean Green
K Dominic De Freitas 6 FG · 6 XP · 24 pts #3 K
RB Jahiem White 185 rush yds · 2 TD · 9 rec #10 RB
DB CJ Coombes 16 tkl · 1 PD #149 DB
DL David Onuoha 9 tkl · 1.5 sacks · 1.5 TFL #169 DL
Tulsa Golden Hurricane
DL Thomas Davis 7 tkl · 3.0 sacks · 3.0 TFL #9 DL
DL Kyran Duhon 9 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL #95 DL
LB Dax Collins 19 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.0 TFL #63 LB
LB Chris Thompson Jr. 18 tkl #106 LB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
North Texas Mean GreenAAC +20.8 +17.3 +3.6 #32
Tulsa Golden HurricaneAAC +4.8 -0.9 +5.8 #124

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
North Texas offense vs Tulsa defense+11.5 pts
Tulsa offense vs North Texas defense-4.5 pts

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.