← Matchups

UTSA

AAC · 2-0 · power +19.0 · #42
Our numberUTSA -14.7 no book has priced this game

Rice

AAC · 1-1 · power +3.0 · #139
Our side
MoneylineUTSA to win ours 19%
Projected score 34–20 UTSA – RICE
2026-10-03 · kickoff TBD Rice Stadium · Houston, TX AAC game Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series UTSA lead 9–4 · 13 meetings since 2012
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge UTSA Roadrunners 166 ranks
UTSA Roadrunners #51 rush offense Rice Owls #217 run defense
Pass game edge UTSA Roadrunners 160 ranks
UTSA Roadrunners #83 pass offense Rice Owls #243 pass defense
Run game even 2 ranks apart
Rice Owls #171 rush offense UTSA Roadrunners #173 run defense
Pass game even 9 ranks apart
Rice Owls #218 pass offense UTSA Roadrunners #209 pass defense
UTSA Roadrunners Balanced · 46% run Ball-control Rice Owls Run-heavy · 78% run Ball-control Dual-threat QB · 44 rush ypg
Jeff Traylor · 53-26 · offense-minded Scott Abell · 5-8

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
UTSA Roadrunners
LB Brandon Tucker 18 tkl · 0.5 TFL #78 LB
DB Ahamad Chapman 3 tkl · 1 INT #177 DB
WR Mekhi Anderson 12 rec · 125 yds · 1 TD #144 WR
WR AJ Wilson 11 rec · 125 yds · 1 TD #155 WR
Rice Owls
DL Chibby Nwajuaku 9 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL #148 DL
DL AJ Brown 10 tkl · 0.5 TFL #157 DL
DL Braden Bays 7 tkl · 2.0 TFL #345 DL
RB Quinton Jackson 61 rush yds · 2 TD · 1 rec #224 RB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
UTSA RoadrunnersAAC +19.0 +11.8 +7.2 #42
Rice OwlsAAC +3.0 -4.4 +7.4 #139

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
UTSA offense vs Rice defense+4.4 pts
Rice offense vs UTSA defense-11.6 pts

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.