Our side
MoneylineUTSA to win
ours 19%
Projected score
34–20
UTSA – RICE
2026-10-03 · kickoff TBD
Rice Stadium · Houston, TX
AAC game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
UTSA lead
9–4
· 13 meetings since 2012
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge UTSA Roadrunners
166 ranks
UTSA Roadrunners #51 rush offense
Rice Owls #217 run defense
Pass game
edge UTSA Roadrunners
160 ranks
UTSA Roadrunners #83 pass offense
Rice Owls #243 pass defense
Run game
even
2 ranks apart
Rice Owls #171 rush offense
UTSA Roadrunners #173 run defense
Pass game
even
9 ranks apart
Rice Owls #218 pass offense
UTSA Roadrunners #209 pass defense
UTSA Roadrunners
Balanced · 46% run
Ball-control
Rice Owls
Run-heavy · 78% run
Ball-control
Dual-threat QB · 44 rush ypg
Jeff Traylor · 53-26 · offense-minded
Scott Abell · 5-8
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
UTSA Roadrunners
LB
Brandon Tucker
18 tkl · 0.5 TFL
#78 LB
DB
Ahamad Chapman
3 tkl · 1 INT
#177 DB
WR
Mekhi Anderson
12 rec · 125 yds · 1 TD
#144 WR
WR
AJ Wilson
11 rec · 125 yds · 1 TD
#155 WR
Rice Owls
DL
Chibby Nwajuaku
9 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL
#148 DL
DL
AJ Brown
10 tkl · 0.5 TFL
#157 DL
DL
Braden Bays
7 tkl · 2.0 TFL
#345 DL
RB
Quinton Jackson
61 rush yds · 2 TD · 1 rec
#224 RB
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
UTSA offense vs Rice defense+4.4 pts
Rice offense vs UTSA defense-11.6 pts
An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have
played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.