← Matchups

Texas Southern

· 1-2 (0-1) · power -19.5 · #374
Our numberFAU -31.4 no book has priced this game

Florida Atlantic

AAC · 1-1 (1-0 AAC) · power +1.9 · #153
Our side
MoneylineFAU to win ours 97%
Projected score 18–49 TXSO – FAU
2026-10-03 · 6:00 PM Flagler Credit Union Stadium · Boca Raton, FL Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

First recorded meeting between these programs
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge Texas Southern Tigers 148 ranks
Texas Southern Tigers #97 rush offense Florida Atlantic Owls #245 run defense
Pass game edge Florida Atlantic Owls 46 ranks
Texas Southern Tigers #204 pass offense Florida Atlantic Owls #158 pass defense
Run game edge Texas Southern Tigers 95 ranks
Florida Atlantic Owls #211 rush offense Texas Southern Tigers #116 run defense
Pass game edge Florida Atlantic Owls 56 ranks
Florida Atlantic Owls #92 pass offense Texas Southern Tigers #148 pass defense
Texas Southern Tigers Run-heavy · 62% run Ball-control Florida Atlantic Owls Pass-heavy · 37% run Ball-control
Zach Kittley · 4-8 · offense-minded

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Texas Southern Tigers
LB Donovan Jones 22 tkl · 2.5 TFL #76 LB
DL Jordan Thompson 10 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL #143 DL
RB Athean Renfro Jr. 293 rush yds · 2 TD · 3 rec #63 RB
DL Thurman Rayborn 5 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL #176 DL
Florida Atlantic Owls
WR Easton Messer 15 rec · 252 yds · 2 TD #12 WR
WR Kelby Valsin 18 rec · 207 yds · 2 TD #15 WR
DB Jayden Sweeney 12 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT #95 DB
DB Josh Roberts 7 tkl #104 DB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Texas Southern Tigers -19.5 -8.1 -11.5 #374
Florida Atlantic OwlsAAC +1.9 +9.4 -7.5 #153

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Texas Southern offense vs Florida Atlantic defense-0.6 pts
Florida Atlantic offense vs Texas Southern defense+20.8 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 958 mi

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.