Our side
MoneylineECU to win
ours 71%
Projected score
21–30
RICE – ECU
2026-10-10 · kickoff TBD
Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium · Greenville, NC
AAC game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Rice lead
3–2
· 5 meetings since 2005
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge East Carolina Pirates
126 ranks
Rice Owls #171 rush offense
East Carolina Pirates #45 run defense
Pass game
edge East Carolina Pirates
186 ranks
Rice Owls #218 pass offense
East Carolina Pirates #32 pass defense
Run game
edge East Carolina Pirates
96 ranks
East Carolina Pirates #121 rush offense
Rice Owls #217 run defense
Pass game
edge East Carolina Pirates
191 ranks
East Carolina Pirates #52 pass offense
Rice Owls #243 pass defense
Rice Owls
Run-heavy · 78% run
Ball-control
Dual-threat QB · 44 rush ypg
East Carolina Pirates
Balanced · 53% run
Avg pace
Scott Abell · 5-8
Blake Harrell · 14-5
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Rice Owls
DL
Chibby Nwajuaku
9 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL
#148 DL
DL
AJ Brown
10 tkl · 0.5 TFL
#157 DL
DL
Braden Bays
7 tkl · 2.0 TFL
#345 DL
RB
Quinton Jackson
61 rush yds · 2 TD · 1 rec
#224 RB
East Carolina Pirates
WR
Jeremiah Melvin
11 rec · 154 yds · 1 TD
#89 WR
DL
Kendrick DuJour
6 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.5 TFL
#255 DL
DL
Torin Brazell
5 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.0 TFL
#307 DL
LB
Crews Law
12 tkl · 1.5 TFL
#220 LB
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Rice offense vs East Carolina defense-10.9 pts
East Carolina offense vs Rice defense-3.6 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 1,123 mi
Rest · context onlyHome team on 7 more days rest
An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have
played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.