Our side
MoneylineUTSA to win
ours 77%
Projected score
20–35
NAVY – UTSA
2026-10-17 · kickoff TBD
Alamodome · San Antonio, TX
AAC game
Indoors
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
First recorded meeting between these programs
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge Navy Midshipmen
159 ranks
Navy Midshipmen #14 rush offense
UTSA Roadrunners #173 run defense
Pass game
edge Navy Midshipmen
174 ranks
Navy Midshipmen #35 pass offense
UTSA Roadrunners #209 pass defense
Run game
edge UTSA Roadrunners
89 ranks
UTSA Roadrunners #51 rush offense
Navy Midshipmen #140 run defense
Pass game
edge UTSA Roadrunners
144 ranks
UTSA Roadrunners #83 pass offense
Navy Midshipmen #227 pass defense
Navy Midshipmen
Run-heavy · 80% run
Ball-control
Dual-threat QB · 104 rush ypg
UTSA Roadrunners
Balanced · 46% run
Ball-control
Brian Newberry · 26-12 · offense-minded
Jeff Traylor · 53-26 · offense-minded
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Navy Midshipmen
DL
Aiden Lyczek
8 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 3.0 TFL
#97 DL
LB
MarcAnthony Parker
18 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL
#61 LB
DL
Griffen Willis
6 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.5 TFL
#203 DL
TE
Jordan Collins
2 rec · 68 yds · 1 TD
#64 TE
UTSA Roadrunners
LB
Brandon Tucker
18 tkl · 0.5 TFL
#78 LB
DB
Ahamad Chapman
3 tkl · 1 INT
#177 DB
WR
Mekhi Anderson
12 rec · 125 yds · 1 TD
#144 WR
WR
AJ Wilson
11 rec · 125 yds · 1 TD
#155 WR
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Navy offense vs UTSA defense-2.6 pts
UTSA offense vs Navy defense+7.4 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 1,414 mi
An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have
played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.