← Matchups

Kent State

MAC · 1-1 · power -1.3 · #190
Our numberUSF -22.3 no book has priced this game

South Florida

AAC · 2-0 (1-0 AAC) · power +19.1 · #41
Our side
MoneylineUSF to win ours 91%
Projected score 16–39 KENT – USF
2026-10-17 · kickoff TBD Raymond James Stadium · Tampa, FL Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

First recorded meeting between these programs
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge South Florida Bulls 231 ranks
Kent State Golden Flashes #255 rush offense South Florida Bulls #24 run defense
Pass game edge South Florida Bulls 106 ranks
Kent State Golden Flashes #143 pass offense South Florida Bulls #37 pass defense
Run game edge South Florida Bulls 141 ranks
South Florida Bulls #56 rush offense Kent State Golden Flashes #197 run defense
Pass game edge South Florida Bulls 139 ranks
South Florida Bulls #5 pass offense Kent State Golden Flashes #144 pass defense
Kent State Golden Flashes Balanced · 57% run Ball-control South Florida Bulls Balanced · 55% run Ball-control Dual-threat QB · 84 rush ypg
Mark Carney · 5-7 Kevin Patrick · 0-1

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Kent State Golden Flashes
DL Jaihien Roy 6 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.0 TFL #51 DL
LB Rocco Nicholl 13 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL #145 LB
LB Hayden Dawahare 10 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 3.0 TFL #234 LB
QB Dru DeShields 311 pass yds · 1 TD · 2 INT #102 QB
South Florida Bulls
DL C.J. Hicks 9 tkl · 1.0 TFL #127 DL
DB Ayden Jackson 16 tkl · 1 PD #181 DB
QB Michael Van Buren Jr. 339 pass yds · 2 TD · 0 INT #54 QB
WR Bryson Rodgers 9 rec · 89 yds · 1 TD #208 WR

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Kent State Golden FlashesMAC -1.3 +3.2 -4.6 #190
South Florida BullsAAC +19.1 +9.4 +9.7 #41

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Kent State offense vs South Florida defense-6.5 pts
South Florida offense vs Kent State defense+13.9 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 912 mi
Altitude · context only310 m lower than the visitor's home elevation

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.