Our side
MoneylineMEM to win
ours 66%
Projected score
24–30
ECU – MEM
2026-10-22 · 7:30 PM
Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium · Memphis, TN
AAC game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
East Carolina lead
18–8
· 26 meetings since 1990
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge Memphis Tigers
53 ranks
East Carolina Pirates #121 rush offense
Memphis Tigers #68 run defense
Pass game
edge East Carolina Pirates
178 ranks
East Carolina Pirates #52 pass offense
Memphis Tigers #230 pass defense
Run game
even
30 ranks apart
Memphis Tigers #15 rush offense
East Carolina Pirates #45 run defense
Pass game
edge East Carolina Pirates
100 ranks
Memphis Tigers #132 pass offense
East Carolina Pirates #32 pass defense
East Carolina Pirates
Balanced · 53% run
Avg pace
Memphis Tigers
Balanced · 51% run
Avg pace
Dual-threat QB · 52 rush ypg
Blake Harrell · 14-5
Ryan Silverfield · 50-24 · offense-minded
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
East Carolina Pirates
WR
Jeremiah Melvin
11 rec · 154 yds · 1 TD
#89 WR
DL
Kendrick DuJour
6 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.5 TFL
#255 DL
DL
Torin Brazell
5 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.0 TFL
#307 DL
LB
Crews Law
12 tkl · 1.5 TFL
#220 LB
Memphis Tigers
TE
Hunter Tipton
14 rec · 291 yds · 2 TD
#1 TE
DL
Elijah Kinsler
18 tkl · 3.5 sacks · 4.5 TFL
#8 DL
RB
Jaylin Carter
375 rush yds · 6 TD · 2 rec
#5 RB
LB
Zach Ruffin
24 tkl · 1.5 TFL
#12 LB
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
East Carolina offense vs Memphis defense-2.5 pts
Memphis offense vs East Carolina defense+2.2 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 711 mi
An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have
played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.