← Matchups

Rice

AAC · 1-1 · power +3.0 · #139
Our numberFAU -2.6 no book has priced this game

Florida Atlantic

AAC · 1-1 (1-0 AAC) · power +1.9 · #153
Our side
MoneylineFAU to win ours 52%
Projected score 27–29 RICE – FAU
2026-10-24 · kickoff TBD Flagler Credit Union Stadium · Boca Raton, FL AAC game Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series Rice and Florida Atlantic split 6 (3–3) · 6 meetings since 2013
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge Rice Owls 74 ranks
Rice Owls #171 rush offense Florida Atlantic Owls #245 run defense
Pass game edge Florida Atlantic Owls 60 ranks
Rice Owls #218 pass offense Florida Atlantic Owls #158 pass defense
Run game even 6 ranks apart
Florida Atlantic Owls #211 rush offense Rice Owls #217 run defense
Pass game edge Florida Atlantic Owls 151 ranks
Florida Atlantic Owls #92 pass offense Rice Owls #243 pass defense
Rice Owls Run-heavy · 78% run Ball-control Dual-threat QB · 44 rush ypg Florida Atlantic Owls Pass-heavy · 37% run Ball-control
Scott Abell · 5-8 Zach Kittley · 4-8 · offense-minded

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Rice Owls
DL Chibby Nwajuaku 9 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL #148 DL
DL AJ Brown 10 tkl · 0.5 TFL #157 DL
DL Braden Bays 7 tkl · 2.0 TFL #345 DL
RB Quinton Jackson 61 rush yds · 2 TD · 1 rec #224 RB
Florida Atlantic Owls
WR Easton Messer 15 rec · 252 yds · 2 TD #12 WR
WR Kelby Valsin 18 rec · 207 yds · 2 TD #15 WR
DB Jayden Sweeney 12 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT #95 DB
DB Josh Roberts 7 tkl #104 DB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Rice OwlsAAC +3.0 -4.4 +7.4 #139
Florida Atlantic OwlsAAC +1.9 +9.4 -7.5 #153

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Rice offense vs Florida Atlantic defense+3.1 pts
Florida Atlantic offense vs Rice defense+1.9 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 961 mi

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.