Our side
MoneylineUNT to win
ours 27%
Projected score
31–27
UNT – NAVY
2026-10-24 · 3:30 PM
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium · Annapolis, MD
AAC game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Navy lead
2–1
· 3 meetings since 2007
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge North Texas Mean Green
129 ranks
North Texas Mean Green #11 rush offense
Navy Midshipmen #140 run defense
Pass game
edge North Texas Mean Green
211 ranks
North Texas Mean Green #16 pass offense
Navy Midshipmen #227 pass defense
Run game
edge Navy Midshipmen
161 ranks
Navy Midshipmen #14 rush offense
North Texas Mean Green #175 run defense
Pass game
edge Navy Midshipmen
48 ranks
Navy Midshipmen #35 pass offense
North Texas Mean Green #83 pass defense
North Texas Mean Green
Balanced · 50% run
Avg pace
Navy Midshipmen
Run-heavy · 80% run
Ball-control
Dual-threat QB · 104 rush ypg
Eric Morris · 22-16 · offense-minded
Brian Newberry · 26-12 · offense-minded
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
North Texas Mean Green
K
Dominic De Freitas
6 FG · 6 XP · 24 pts
#3 K
RB
Jahiem White
185 rush yds · 2 TD · 9 rec
#10 RB
DB
CJ Coombes
16 tkl · 1 PD
#149 DB
DL
David Onuoha
9 tkl · 1.5 sacks · 1.5 TFL
#169 DL
Navy Midshipmen
DL
Aiden Lyczek
8 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 3.0 TFL
#97 DL
LB
MarcAnthony Parker
18 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL
#61 LB
DL
Griffen Willis
6 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.5 TFL
#203 DL
TE
Jordan Collins
2 rec · 68 yds · 1 TD
#64 TE
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
North Texas offense vs Navy defense+12.8 pts
Navy offense vs North Texas defense+1.0 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 1,217 mi
Rest · context onlyAway team on 7 more days rest
An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have
played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.