← Matchups

UTSA

AAC · 2-0 · power +19.0 · #42
Our numberUTSA -2.8 no book has priced this game

Tulane

AAC · 1-1 · power +13.0 · #66
Our side
MoneylineUTSA to win ours 40%
Projected score 27–24 UTSA – TULN
2026-10-24 · kickoff TBD Yulman Stadium · New Orleans, LA AAC game Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series UTSA lead 2–1 · 3 meetings since 2013
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game even 29 ranks apart
UTSA Roadrunners #51 rush offense Tulane Green Wave #80 run defense
Pass game edge UTSA Roadrunners 57 ranks
UTSA Roadrunners #83 pass offense Tulane Green Wave #140 pass defense
Run game edge Tulane Green Wave 54 ranks
Tulane Green Wave #119 rush offense UTSA Roadrunners #173 run defense
Pass game edge Tulane Green Wave 146 ranks
Tulane Green Wave #63 pass offense UTSA Roadrunners #209 pass defense
UTSA Roadrunners Balanced · 46% run Ball-control Tulane Green Wave Balanced · 57% run Avg pace Dual-threat QB · 47 rush ypg
Jeff Traylor · 53-26 · offense-minded Jon Sumrall · 43-12

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
UTSA Roadrunners
LB Brandon Tucker 18 tkl · 0.5 TFL #78 LB
DB Ahamad Chapman 3 tkl · 1 INT #177 DB
WR Mekhi Anderson 12 rec · 125 yds · 1 TD #144 WR
WR AJ Wilson 11 rec · 125 yds · 1 TD #155 WR
Tulane Green Wave
DB Kevin Adams III 21 tkl #105 DB
DB Jack Tchienchou 17 tkl · 1 PD #129 DB
LB Dickson Agu 23 tkl #85 LB
WR Destyn Hill 9 rec · 158 yds · 1 TD #122 WR

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
UTSA RoadrunnersAAC +19.0 +11.8 +7.2 #42
Tulane Green WaveAAC +13.0 -0.1 +13.1 #66

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
UTSA offense vs Tulane defense-1.3 pts
Tulane offense vs UTSA defense-7.3 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 503 mi

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.