← Matchups

Florida Atlantic

AAC · 1-1 (1-0 AAC) · power +1.9 · #153
Our numberUNT -18.3 no book has priced this game

North Texas

AAC · 1-1 · power +20.8 · #32
Our side
MoneylineUNT to win ours 90%
Projected score 23–41 FAU – UNT
2026-10-29 · 7:30 PM DATCU Stadium · Denton, TX AAC game Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series Florida Atlantic lead 8–7 · 15 meetings since 2004
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game even 36 ranks apart
Florida Atlantic Owls #211 rush offense North Texas Mean Green #175 run defense
Pass game even 9 ranks apart
Florida Atlantic Owls #92 pass offense North Texas Mean Green #83 pass defense
Run game edge North Texas Mean Green 234 ranks
North Texas Mean Green #11 rush offense Florida Atlantic Owls #245 run defense
Pass game edge North Texas Mean Green 142 ranks
North Texas Mean Green #16 pass offense Florida Atlantic Owls #158 pass defense
Florida Atlantic Owls Pass-heavy · 37% run Ball-control North Texas Mean Green Balanced · 50% run Avg pace
Zach Kittley · 4-8 · offense-minded Eric Morris · 22-16 · offense-minded

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Florida Atlantic Owls
WR Easton Messer 15 rec · 252 yds · 2 TD #12 WR
WR Kelby Valsin 18 rec · 207 yds · 2 TD #15 WR
DB Jayden Sweeney 12 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT #95 DB
DB Josh Roberts 7 tkl #104 DB
North Texas Mean Green
K Dominic De Freitas 6 FG · 6 XP · 24 pts #3 K
RB Jahiem White 185 rush yds · 2 TD · 9 rec #10 RB
DB CJ Coombes 16 tkl · 1 PD #149 DB
DL David Onuoha 9 tkl · 1.5 sacks · 1.5 TFL #169 DL

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Florida Atlantic OwlsAAC +1.9 +9.4 -7.5 #153
North Texas Mean GreenAAC +20.8 +17.3 +3.6 #32

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Florida Atlantic offense vs North Texas defense+5.8 pts
North Texas offense vs Florida Atlantic defense+24.7 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 1,124 mi

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.