Our side
MoneylineUTSA to win
ours 18%
Projected score
39–22
UTSA – FAU
2026-11-05 · 8:00 PM
Flagler Credit Union Stadium · Boca Raton, FL
AAC game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Florida Atlantic lead
3–2
· 5 meetings since 2014
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge UTSA Roadrunners
194 ranks
UTSA Roadrunners #51 rush offense
Florida Atlantic Owls #245 run defense
Pass game
edge UTSA Roadrunners
75 ranks
UTSA Roadrunners #83 pass offense
Florida Atlantic Owls #158 pass defense
Run game
even
38 ranks apart
Florida Atlantic Owls #211 rush offense
UTSA Roadrunners #173 run defense
Pass game
edge Florida Atlantic Owls
117 ranks
Florida Atlantic Owls #92 pass offense
UTSA Roadrunners #209 pass defense
UTSA Roadrunners
Balanced · 46% run
Ball-control
Florida Atlantic Owls
Pass-heavy · 37% run
Ball-control
Jeff Traylor · 53-26 · offense-minded
Zach Kittley · 4-8 · offense-minded
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
UTSA Roadrunners
LB
Brandon Tucker
18 tkl · 0.5 TFL
#78 LB
DB
Ahamad Chapman
3 tkl · 1 INT
#177 DB
WR
Mekhi Anderson
12 rec · 125 yds · 1 TD
#144 WR
WR
AJ Wilson Jr.
11 rec · 125 yds · 1 TD
#155 WR
Florida Atlantic Owls
WR
Easton Messer
15 rec · 252 yds · 2 TD
#12 WR
WR
Kelby Valsin
18 rec · 207 yds · 2 TD
#15 WR
DB
Jayden Sweeney
12 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
#95 DB
DB
Josh Roberts
7 tkl
#104 DB
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
UTSA offense vs Florida Atlantic defense+19.3 pts
Florida Atlantic offense vs UTSA defense+2.2 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 1,140 mi
Rest · context onlyAway team on 5 more days rest
An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have
played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.