← Matchups

Air Force

MWC · 1-1 · power +6.9 · #103
Our numberARMY -10.7 no book has priced this game

Army

AAC · 1-1 (0-1 AAC) · power +12.9 · #69
Our side
MoneylineARMY to win ours 69%
Projected score 18–28 AF – ARMY
2026-11-07 · 7:30 PM Michie Stadium · West Point, NY Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series Air Force lead 38–21–1 · 60 meetings since 1959
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge Air Force Falcons 125 ranks
Air Force Falcons #34 rush offense Army Black Knights #159 run defense
Pass game edge Air Force Falcons 163 ranks
Air Force Falcons #3 pass offense Army Black Knights #166 pass defense
Run game edge Army Black Knights 173 ranks
Army Black Knights #86 rush offense Air Force Falcons #259 run defense
Pass game edge Army Black Knights 230 ranks
Army Black Knights #25 pass offense Air Force Falcons #255 pass defense
Air Force Falcons Run-heavy · 80% run Avg pace Dual-threat QB · 92 rush ypg Army Black Knights Run-heavy · 87% run Avg pace Dual-threat QB · 98 rush ypg
Troy Calhoun · 80-53 · offense-minded Jeff Monken · 85-55

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Air Force Falcons
LB Blake Fletcher 21 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.5 TFL #1 LB
P Will Duncan 5 punts · 56.0 yd avg #18 P
LB Dallas Daley 12 tkl · 1.0 TFL #238 LB
DB Korey Johnson 6 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT #501 DB
Army Black Knights
RB Godspower Nwawuihe 147 rush yds · 2 TD · 1 rec #52 RB
LB Elijah Walton 15 tkl · 0.5 sacks · 1.5 TFL #124 LB
QB Cale Hellums 150 pass yds · 2 TD · 0 INT #78 QB
WR Zach Mundell 3 rec · 47 yds · 1 TD #288 WR

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Air Force FalconsMWC +6.9 +3.7 +3.1 #103
Army Black KnightsAAC +12.9 +4.3 +8.6 #69

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Air Force offense vs Army defense-4.9 pts
Army offense vs Air Force defense+1.2 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 1,630 mi
Altitude · context only1,918 m lower than the visitor's home elevation

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.