Our side
MoneylineUSF to win
ours 64%
Projected score
24–31
MEM – USF
2026-11-12 · 8:00 PM
Raymond James Stadium · Tampa, FL
AAC game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Memphis lead
10–4
· 14 meetings since 2001
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
even
9 ranks apart
Memphis Tigers #15 rush offense
South Florida Bulls #24 run defense
Pass game
edge South Florida Bulls
95 ranks
Memphis Tigers #132 pass offense
South Florida Bulls #37 pass defense
Run game
even
12 ranks apart
South Florida Bulls #56 rush offense
Memphis Tigers #68 run defense
Pass game
edge South Florida Bulls
225 ranks
South Florida Bulls #5 pass offense
Memphis Tigers #230 pass defense
Memphis Tigers
Balanced · 51% run
Avg pace
Dual-threat QB · 52 rush ypg
South Florida Bulls
Balanced · 55% run
Ball-control
Dual-threat QB · 84 rush ypg
Ryan Silverfield · 50-24 · offense-minded
Kevin Patrick · 0-1
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Memphis Tigers
TE
Hunter Tipton
14 rec · 291 yds · 2 TD
#1 TE
DL
Elijah Kinsler
18 tkl · 3.5 sacks · 4.5 TFL
#8 DL
RB
Jaylin Carter
375 rush yds · 6 TD · 2 rec
#5 RB
LB
Zach Ruffin
24 tkl · 1.5 TFL
#12 LB
South Florida Bulls
DL
C.J. Hicks
9 tkl · 1.0 TFL
#127 DL
DB
Ayden Jackson
16 tkl · 1 PD
#181 DB
QB
Michael Van Buren Jr.
339 pass yds · 2 TD · 0 INT
#54 QB
WR
Bryson Rodgers
9 rec · 89 yds · 1 TD
#208 WR
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Memphis offense vs South Florida defense-0.9 pts
South Florida offense vs Memphis defense+3.0 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 661 mi
Rest · context onlyAway team on 6 more days rest
An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have
played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.