← Matchups

Florida Atlantic

AAC · 1-1 (1-0 AAC) · power +1.9 · #153
Our numberTLSA -7.5 no book has priced this game

Tulsa

AAC · 2-0 · power +4.8 · #124
Our side
MoneylineTLSA to win ours 62%
Projected score 25–32 FAU – TLSA
2026-11-14 · kickoff TBD H. A. Chapman Stadium · Tulsa, OK AAC game Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series Florida Atlantic lead 4–1 · 5 meetings since 2014
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge Tulsa Golden Hurricane 163 ranks
Florida Atlantic Owls #211 rush offense Tulsa Golden Hurricane #48 run defense
Pass game even 39 ranks apart
Florida Atlantic Owls #92 pass offense Tulsa Golden Hurricane #131 pass defense
Run game edge Tulsa Golden Hurricane 88 ranks
Tulsa Golden Hurricane #157 rush offense Florida Atlantic Owls #245 run defense
Pass game even 34 ranks apart
Tulsa Golden Hurricane #192 pass offense Florida Atlantic Owls #158 pass defense
Florida Atlantic Owls Pass-heavy · 37% run Ball-control Tulsa Golden Hurricane Balanced · 55% run Up-tempo
Zach Kittley · 4-8 · offense-minded Tre Lamb · 4-8

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Florida Atlantic Owls
WR Easton Messer 15 rec · 252 yds · 2 TD #12 WR
WR Kelby Valsin 18 rec · 207 yds · 2 TD #15 WR
DB Jayden Sweeney 12 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT #95 DB
DB Josh Roberts 7 tkl #104 DB
Tulsa Golden Hurricane
DL Thomas Davis 7 tkl · 3.0 sacks · 3.0 TFL #9 DL
DL Kyran Duhon 9 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL #95 DL
LB Dax Collins 19 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.0 TFL #63 LB
LB Chris Thompson Jr. 18 tkl #106 LB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Florida Atlantic OwlsAAC +1.9 +9.4 -7.5 #153
Tulsa Golden HurricaneAAC +4.8 -0.9 +5.8 #124

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Florida Atlantic offense vs Tulsa defense+3.6 pts
Tulsa offense vs Florida Atlantic defense+6.5 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 1,151 mi

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.