← Matchups

East Carolina

AAC · 0-2 · power +10.4 · #79
Our numberARMY -7.5 no book has priced this game

Army

AAC · 1-1 (0-1 AAC) · power +12.9 · #69
Our side
MoneylineARMY to win ours 61%
Projected score 20–28 ECU – ARMY
2026-11-21 · 12:00 PM Michie Stadium · West Point, NY AAC game Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series East Carolina lead 9–1 · 10 meetings since 1995
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game even 38 ranks apart
East Carolina Pirates #121 rush offense Army Black Knights #159 run defense
Pass game edge East Carolina Pirates 114 ranks
East Carolina Pirates #52 pass offense Army Black Knights #166 pass defense
Run game even 41 ranks apart
Army Black Knights #86 rush offense East Carolina Pirates #45 run defense
Pass game even 7 ranks apart
Army Black Knights #25 pass offense East Carolina Pirates #32 pass defense
East Carolina Pirates Balanced · 53% run Avg pace Army Black Knights Run-heavy · 87% run Avg pace Dual-threat QB · 98 rush ypg
Blake Harrell · 14-5 Jeff Monken · 85-55

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
East Carolina Pirates
WR Jeremiah Melvin 11 rec · 154 yds · 1 TD #89 WR
DL Kendrick DuJour 6 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.5 TFL #255 DL
DL Torin Brazell 5 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.0 TFL #307 DL
LB Crews Law 12 tkl · 1.5 TFL #220 LB
Army Black Knights
RB Godspower Nwawuihe 147 rush yds · 2 TD · 1 rec #52 RB
LB Elijah Walton 15 tkl · 0.5 sacks · 1.5 TFL #124 LB
QB Cale Hellums 150 pass yds · 2 TD · 0 INT #78 QB
WR Zach Mundell 3 rec · 47 yds · 1 TD #288 WR

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
East Carolina PiratesAAC +10.4 +3.9 +6.5 #79
Army Black KnightsAAC +12.9 +4.3 +8.6 #69

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
East Carolina offense vs Army defense-4.7 pts
Army offense vs East Carolina defense-2.2 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 440 mi
Rest · context onlyHome team on 7 more days rest

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.