← Matchups

Charlotte

AAC · 0-2 · power -10.3 · #299
Our numberTLSA -12.0 no book has priced this game

Tulsa

AAC · 2-0 · power +4.8 · #124
Our side
MoneylineTLSA to win ours 85%
Projected score 19–31 CLT – TLSA
2026-11-21 · kickoff TBD H. A. Chapman Stadium · Tulsa, OK AAC game Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series Charlotte lead 1–0 · 1 meeting since 2023
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge Tulsa Golden Hurricane 216 ranks
Charlotte 49ers #264 rush offense Tulsa Golden Hurricane #48 run defense
Pass game edge Tulsa Golden Hurricane 103 ranks
Charlotte 49ers #234 pass offense Tulsa Golden Hurricane #131 pass defense
Run game edge Tulsa Golden Hurricane 91 ranks
Tulsa Golden Hurricane #157 rush offense Charlotte 49ers #248 run defense
Pass game even 28 ranks apart
Tulsa Golden Hurricane #192 pass offense Charlotte 49ers #220 pass defense
Charlotte 49ers Balanced · 50% run Ball-control Tulsa Golden Hurricane Balanced · 55% run Up-tempo
Tim Albin · 35-30 Tre Lamb · 4-8

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Charlotte 49ers
DB Collin Gill 16 tkl #49 DB
WR Jaylen Hampton 11 rec · 142 yds · 2 TD #124 WR
LB Gavin Willis 14 tkl · 2.5 TFL #184 LB
DL Curtis Simpson 9 tkl · 1.0 TFL #417 DL
Tulsa Golden Hurricane
DL Thomas Davis 7 tkl · 3.0 sacks · 3.0 TFL #9 DL
DL Kyran Duhon 9 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL #95 DL
LB Dax Collins 19 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.0 TFL #63 LB
LB Chris Thompson Jr. 18 tkl #106 LB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Charlotte 49ersAAC -10.3 -4.9 -5.4 #299
Tulsa Golden HurricaneAAC +4.8 -0.9 +5.8 #124

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Charlotte offense vs Tulsa defense-10.7 pts
Tulsa offense vs Charlotte defense+4.4 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 854 mi

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.