Our side
MoneylineUSF to win
ours 18%
Projected score
38–22
USF – FAU
2026-11-21 · kickoff TBD
Flagler Credit Union Stadium · Boca Raton, FL
AAC game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
South Florida lead
5–2
· 7 meetings since 2002
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge South Florida Bulls
189 ranks
South Florida Bulls #56 rush offense
Florida Atlantic Owls #245 run defense
Pass game
edge South Florida Bulls
153 ranks
South Florida Bulls #5 pass offense
Florida Atlantic Owls #158 pass defense
Run game
edge South Florida Bulls
187 ranks
Florida Atlantic Owls #211 rush offense
South Florida Bulls #24 run defense
Pass game
edge South Florida Bulls
55 ranks
Florida Atlantic Owls #92 pass offense
South Florida Bulls #37 pass defense
South Florida Bulls
Balanced · 55% run
Ball-control
Dual-threat QB · 84 rush ypg
Florida Atlantic Owls
Pass-heavy · 37% run
Ball-control
Kevin Patrick · 0-1
Zach Kittley · 4-8 · offense-minded
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
South Florida Bulls
DL
C.J. Hicks
9 tkl · 1.0 TFL
#127 DL
DB
Ayden Jackson
16 tkl · 1 PD
#181 DB
QB
Michael Van Buren Jr.
339 pass yds · 2 TD · 0 INT
#54 QB
WR
Bryson Rodgers
9 rec · 89 yds · 1 TD
#208 WR
Florida Atlantic Owls
WR
Easton Messer
15 rec · 252 yds · 2 TD
#12 WR
WR
Kelby Valsin
18 rec · 207 yds · 2 TD
#15 WR
DB
Jayden Sweeney
12 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
#95 DB
DB
Josh Roberts
7 tkl
#104 DB
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
South Florida offense vs Florida Atlantic defense+16.8 pts
Florida Atlantic offense vs South Florida defense-0.3 pts
An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have
played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.