Our side
MoneylineMEM to win
ours 40%
Projected score
26–27
MEM – NAVY
2026-11-21 · 12:00 PM
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium · Annapolis, MD
AAC game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Memphis lead
6–5
· 11 meetings since 2015
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge Memphis Tigers
125 ranks
Memphis Tigers #15 rush offense
Navy Midshipmen #140 run defense
Pass game
edge Memphis Tigers
95 ranks
Memphis Tigers #132 pass offense
Navy Midshipmen #227 pass defense
Run game
edge Navy Midshipmen
54 ranks
Navy Midshipmen #14 rush offense
Memphis Tigers #68 run defense
Pass game
edge Navy Midshipmen
195 ranks
Navy Midshipmen #35 pass offense
Memphis Tigers #230 pass defense
Memphis Tigers
Balanced · 51% run
Avg pace
Dual-threat QB · 52 rush ypg
Navy Midshipmen
Run-heavy · 80% run
Ball-control
Dual-threat QB · 104 rush ypg
Ryan Silverfield · 50-24 · offense-minded
Brian Newberry · 26-12 · offense-minded
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Memphis Tigers
TE
Hunter Tipton
14 rec · 291 yds · 2 TD
#1 TE
DL
Elijah Kinsler
18 tkl · 3.5 sacks · 4.5 TFL
#8 DL
RB
Jaylin Carter
375 rush yds · 6 TD · 2 rec
#5 RB
LB
Zach Ruffin
24 tkl · 1.5 TFL
#12 LB
Navy Midshipmen
DL
Aiden Lyczek
8 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 3.0 TFL
#97 DL
LB
MarcAnthony Parker
18 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL
#61 LB
DL
Griffen Willis
6 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.5 TFL
#203 DL
TE
Jordan Collins
2 rec · 68 yds · 1 TD
#64 TE
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Memphis offense vs Navy defense+4.3 pts
Navy offense vs Memphis defense-1.8 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 788 mi
Rest · context onlyHome team on 5 more days rest
An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have
played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.