Our side
MoneylineECU to win
ours 74%
Projected score
27–32
FAU – ECU
2026-11-27 · kickoff TBD
Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium · Greenville, NC
AAC game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
East Carolina lead
4–0
· 4 meetings since 2013
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge East Carolina Pirates
166 ranks
Florida Atlantic Owls #211 rush offense
East Carolina Pirates #45 run defense
Pass game
edge East Carolina Pirates
60 ranks
Florida Atlantic Owls #92 pass offense
East Carolina Pirates #32 pass defense
Run game
edge East Carolina Pirates
124 ranks
East Carolina Pirates #121 rush offense
Florida Atlantic Owls #245 run defense
Pass game
edge East Carolina Pirates
106 ranks
East Carolina Pirates #52 pass offense
Florida Atlantic Owls #158 pass defense
Florida Atlantic Owls
Pass-heavy · 37% run
Ball-control
East Carolina Pirates
Balanced · 53% run
Avg pace
Zach Kittley · 4-8 · offense-minded
Blake Harrell · 14-5
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Florida Atlantic Owls
WR
Easton Messer
15 rec · 252 yds · 2 TD
#12 WR
WR
Kelby Valsin
18 rec · 207 yds · 2 TD
#15 WR
DB
Jayden Sweeney
12 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
#95 DB
DB
Josh Roberts
7 tkl
#104 DB
East Carolina Pirates
WR
Jeremiah Melvin
11 rec · 154 yds · 1 TD
#89 WR
DL
Kendrick DuJour
6 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.5 TFL
#255 DL
DL
Torin Brazell
5 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.0 TFL
#307 DL
LB
Crews Law
12 tkl · 1.5 TFL
#220 LB
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Florida Atlantic offense vs East Carolina defense+2.8 pts
East Carolina offense vs Florida Atlantic defense+11.3 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 657 mi
An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have
played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.