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Tulsa

AAC · 2-0 · power +4.8 · #124
Our numberUTSA -18.4 no book has priced this game

UTSA

AAC · 2-0 · power +19.0 · #42
Our side
MoneylineUTSA to win ours 84%
Projected score 18–36 TLSA – UTSA
2026-11-28 · kickoff TBD Alamodome · San Antonio, TX AAC game Indoors Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series Tulsa and UTSA split 2 (1–1) · 2 meetings since 2013
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game even 16 ranks apart
Tulsa Golden Hurricane #157 rush offense UTSA Roadrunners #173 run defense
Pass game even 17 ranks apart
Tulsa Golden Hurricane #192 pass offense UTSA Roadrunners #209 pass defense
Run game even 3 ranks apart
UTSA Roadrunners #51 rush offense Tulsa Golden Hurricane #48 run defense
Pass game edge UTSA Roadrunners 48 ranks
UTSA Roadrunners #83 pass offense Tulsa Golden Hurricane #131 pass defense
Tulsa Golden Hurricane Balanced · 55% run Up-tempo UTSA Roadrunners Balanced · 46% run Ball-control
Tre Lamb · 4-8 Jeff Traylor · 53-26 · offense-minded

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Tulsa Golden Hurricane
DL Thomas Davis 7 tkl · 3.0 sacks · 3.0 TFL #9 DL
DL Kyran Duhon 9 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL #95 DL
LB Dax Collins 19 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.0 TFL #63 LB
LB Chris Thompson Jr. 18 tkl #106 LB
UTSA Roadrunners
LB Brandon Tucker 18 tkl · 0.5 TFL #78 LB
DB Ahamad Chapman 3 tkl · 1 INT #177 DB
WR Mekhi Anderson 12 rec · 125 yds · 1 TD #144 WR
WR AJ Wilson Jr. 11 rec · 125 yds · 1 TD #155 WR

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Tulsa Golden HurricaneAAC +4.8 -0.9 +5.8 #124
UTSA RoadrunnersAAC +19.0 +11.8 +7.2 #42

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Tulsa offense vs UTSA defense-8.1 pts
UTSA offense vs Tulsa defense+6.1 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 488 mi

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.