FinalWKU 14 · NEV 49ML LSpread WTotal Lour logged sides, graded on the record
Our side
MoneylineWKU to winloggedlive now: NEV to win — the pick stands, the number moved · ours 66%
Our number: WKU by 8.0 — WKU to win.
WKU team totalWKU over 26.5loggedlive now: WKU under 26.5 — the pick stands, the number moved · ours 24.0
Our number: WKU 28.1, from our margin and total split into two scores.
Projected score24–32WKU – NEV
2026-09-05 · 10:30 PMMackay Stadium · Reno, NVEarly season
The books 5 account books · tap any price — the ticket builds at that book
Book
WKU spread
NEV spread
Over
Under
WKU win
NEV win
WKU TT over
WKU TT under
NEV TT over
NEV TT under
DraftKings
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FanDuel
BetMGM
ESPN Bet
Caesars
The gold price is the best available on that side;
a gold ★ marks the side our number implies — a read, not a pick.
TT is a team total — that team’s own points, not the game’s;
columns are empty where no book hangs one.
Send to book opens whichever book you tapped, not the one we would have picked.
Prices are the books’ own.
Public vs booksbets vs money · Action Networkcaptured in-gamespreadWKU 74% bets · 58% moneytotalUnder 87% bets · 80% moneyMLWKU 85% bets · 39% money · money NEV
Series
Western Kentucky lead
1–0
· 1 meeting since 2025
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run gameedge Western Kentucky Hilltoppers105 ranks
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers #145 rush offenseNevada Wolf Pack #250 run defense
Pass gameeven20 ranks apart
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers #135 pass offenseNevada Wolf Pack #115 pass defense
Run gameedge Western Kentucky Hilltoppers58 ranks
Nevada Wolf Pack #179 rush offenseWestern Kentucky Hilltoppers #121 run defense
Pass gameedge Western Kentucky Hilltoppers187 ranks
Western Kentucky HilltoppersBalanced · 49% runAvg paceNevada Wolf PackRun-heavy · 64% runBall-control
Tyson Helton · 57-36Jeff Choate · 6-19
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Western Kentucky offense vs Nevada defense-3.5 pts
Nevada offense vs Western Kentucky defense+2.3 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 1,808 mi
Altitude · context only1,252 m higher than the visitor's home elevation
An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have
played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.