← Matchups

Duquesne

· 0-2 · power -13.0 · #329
Our numberAF -30.1 no book has priced this game

Air Force

MWC · 1-1 · power +6.9 · #103
Final DUQ 0 · AF 34 our logged sides, graded on the record
Our side
MoneylineAF to win ours 95%
Projected score 13–43 DUQ – AF
2026-09-05 · 1:00 PM Falcon Stadium · USAF Academy, CO Early season

The books 5 account books · tap any price — the ticket builds at that book

Book DUQ spreadAF spread OverUnder DUQ winAF win DUQ TT overDUQ TT under AF TT overAF TT under
DraftKings
FanDuel
BetMGM
ESPN Bet
Caesars

The gold price is the best available on that side; a gold marks the side our number implies — a read, not a pick. TT is a team total — that team’s own points, not the game’s; columns are empty where no book hangs one. Send to book opens whichever book you tapped, not the one we would have picked. Prices are the books’ own.

Public vs booksbets vs money · Action Network captured in-game spread DUQ 90% bets · 7% money · money AF total Under 68% bets · 84% money ML AF 98% bets · 70% money
First recorded meeting between these programs
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge Duquesne Dukes 169 ranks
Duquesne Dukes #90 rush offense Air Force Falcons #259 run defense
Pass game edge Duquesne Dukes 134 ranks
Duquesne Dukes #121 pass offense Air Force Falcons #255 pass defense
Run game edge Air Force Falcons 124 ranks
Air Force Falcons #34 rush offense Duquesne Dukes #158 run defense
Pass game edge Air Force Falcons 86 ranks
Air Force Falcons #3 pass offense Duquesne Dukes #89 pass defense
Duquesne Dukes Run-heavy · 60% run Ball-control Air Force Falcons Run-heavy · 80% run Avg pace Dual-threat QB · 92 rush ypg
Troy Calhoun · 80-53 · offense-minded

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Duquesne Dukes
DL Nico Pate 10 tkl #337 DL
DB Caleb Jones 12 tkl · 1 PD #379 DB
LB Luke Miller 15 tkl #349 LB
LB Zach Chambers 14 tkl #405 LB
Air Force Falcons
LB Blake Fletcher 21 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.5 TFL #1 LB
P Will Duncan 5 punts · 56.0 yd avg #18 P
LB Dallas Daley 12 tkl · 1.0 TFL #238 LB
DB Korey Johnson 6 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT #501 DB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Duquesne Dukes -13.0 -6.2 -6.8 #329
Air Force FalconsMWC +6.9 +3.7 +3.1 #103

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Duquesne offense vs Air Force defense-9.3 pts
Air Force offense vs Duquesne defense+10.6 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 1,320 mi
Altitude · context only1,749 m higher than the visitor's home elevation

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.