BallKnowMe college football, by the numbers

← Matchups

UNLV

MWC · 1-2 (1-0 MWC) · power +10.0 · #85
Our numberUNLV -5.9 no book has priced this game

Hawai'i

MWC · 1-2 (0-1 MWC) · power +2.1 · #151
Final UNLV 21 · HAW 6 ML W Spread W Total W our logged sides, graded on the record
Our side
MoneylineUNLV to win logged ours 37%

Our number: UNLV by 2.0 — UNLV to win.

UNLV team totalUNLV under 29.5 logged live now: UNLV under 28.5 — the pick stands, the number moved · ours 28.4

Our number: UNLV 27.5, from our margin and total split into two scores.

Projected score 28–22 UNLV – HAW
2026-09-05 · 10:00 PM Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex · Honolulu, HI MWC game Early season

The books 5 account books · tap any price — the ticket builds at that book

Book UNLV spreadHAW spread OverUnder UNLV winHAW win UNLV TT overUNLV TT under HAW TT overHAW TT under
DraftKings — — — —
FanDuel — —
BetMGM — —
ESPN Bet — —
Caesars — —

The gold price is the best available on that side; a gold ★ marks the side our number implies — a read, not a pick. TT is a team total — that team’s own points, not the game’s; columns are empty where no book hangs one. Send to book opens whichever book you tapped, not the one we would have picked. Prices are the books’ own.

Public vs booksbets vs money · Action Network captured in-game spread UNLV 72% bets · 73% money total Under 96% bets · 94% money ML UNLV 87% bets · 74% money
Series Hawai'i and UNLV split 32 (16–16) · 32 meetings since 1974
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge UNLV Rebels 105 ranks
UNLV Rebels #20 rush offense Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors #125 run defense
Pass game edge UNLV Rebels 95 ranks
UNLV Rebels #50 pass offense Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors #145 pass defense
Run game even 28 ranks apart
Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors #205 rush offense UNLV Rebels #233 run defense
Pass game edge Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors 49 ranks
Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors #97 pass offense UNLV Rebels #146 pass defense
UNLV Rebels Balanced · 52% run Avg pace Dual-threat QB · 48 rush ypg Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors Balanced · 42% run Avg pace
Dan Mullen · 67-34 · offense-minded Timmy Chang · 22-29

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
UNLV Rebels
DB Tre Fulton 21 tkl · 1 PD #28 DB
DB Jake Pope 23 tkl · 1 PD #62 DB
RB Jai'Den Thomas 224 rush yds · 1 TD · 7 rec #69 RB
DB Denver Harris 10 tkl · 2 PD #212 DB
Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors
DB Kona Moore 30 tkl · 2 PD #13 DB
RB DeVon Rice 167 rush yds · 3 TD · 10 rec #23 RB
LB Jamih Otis 26 tkl #53 LB
DB Matagi Thompson 15 tkl · 4 PD #122 DB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
UNLV RebelsMWC +10.0 +1.9 +8.1 #85
Hawai'i Rainbow WarriorsMWC +2.1 -0.9 +3.0 #151

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
UNLV offense vs Hawai'i defense-1.1 pts
Hawai'i offense vs UNLV defense-9.0 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 2,753 mi
Altitude · context only661 m lower than the visitor's home elevation

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.