BallKnowMe college football, by the numbers

← Matchups

Central Michigan

MAC · 1-1 · power -3.5 · #222
Our numberUNM -17.3 no book has priced this game

New Mexico

MWC · 2-0 · power +12.1 · #73
Final CMU 7 · UNM 38 ML W Spread L Total W our logged sides, graded on the record
Our side
MoneylineUNM to win logged ours 83%

Our number: UNM by 10.5 — UNM to win.

CMU team totalCMU over 17.5 logged live now: CMU under 17.5 — the pick stands, the number moved · ours 17.4

Our number: CMU 18.7, from our margin and total split into two scores.

UNM team totalUNM under 29.5 logged ours 34.7

Our number: UNM 29.2, from our margin and total split into two scores.

Projected score 17–35 CMU – UNM
2026-09-05 · 10:00 PM University Stadium (NM) · Albuquerque, NM Early season

The books 5 account books · tap any price — the ticket builds at that book

Book CMU spreadUNM spread OverUnder CMU winUNM win CMU TT overCMU TT under UNM TT overUNM TT under
DraftKings — — — —
FanDuel
BetMGM
ESPN Bet
Caesars

The gold price is the best available on that side; a gold ★ marks the side our number implies — a read, not a pick. TT is a team total — that team’s own points, not the game’s; columns are empty where no book hangs one. Send to book opens whichever book you tapped, not the one we would have picked. Prices are the books’ own.

Public vs booksbets vs money · Action Network captured in-game spread UNM 54% bets · 30% money · money CMU total Over 68% bets · 57% money ML UNM 98% bets · 39% money · money CMU
First recorded meeting between these programs
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge New Mexico Lobos 81 ranks
Central Michigan Chippewas #154 rush offense New Mexico Lobos #73 run defense
Pass game edge Central Michigan Chippewas 87 ranks
Central Michigan Chippewas #12 pass offense New Mexico Lobos #99 pass defense
Run game even 27 ranks apart
New Mexico Lobos #109 rush offense Central Michigan Chippewas #82 run defense
Pass game even 44 ranks apart
New Mexico Lobos #115 pass offense Central Michigan Chippewas #71 pass defense
Central Michigan Chippewas Run-heavy · 68% run Ball-control New Mexico Lobos Balanced · 56% run Avg pace
Matt Drinkall · 7-6 Jason Eck · 9-4

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Central Michigan Chippewas
DB Darrell Bryant Jr. 13 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT #158 DB
DL Hunter Zirkle 5 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.0 TFL #183 DL
DL Korver Demma 7 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.5 TFL #219 DL
LB Mayson Hitchens 15 tkl #178 LB
New Mexico Lobos
RB Scottre Humphrey 174 rush yds · 3 TD #64 RB
TE Cade Keith 5 rec · 91 yds · 1 TD #46 TE
DL Brett Karhu 4 tkl · 2.5 sacks · 2.5 TFL #260 DL
K Grant Glasgow 3 FG · 10 XP · 19 pts #43 K

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Central Michigan ChippewasMAC -3.5 -8.6 +5.1 #222
New Mexico LobosMWC +12.1 +9.1 +3.0 #73

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Central Michigan offense vs New Mexico defense-11.6 pts
New Mexico offense vs Central Michigan defense+4.0 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 1,302 mi
Altitude · context only1,313 m higher than the visitor's home elevation

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.